Its late so I'm gonna be brief...on the subject of reasoning.
there is always a large number of possibilities. but lets say for instance that its not just the puddle of water on the floor, but the puddle of water sits next to the fridge, and the ice box is open and there is a cup sitting on the counter that is full of ice water. And a few moments ago, your spouse came in from a long jog in the hot sun. etc etc.
You give an example as if I believe there is only one piece of evidence that points to a God. I believe there are many things that lead to this conclusion. I believe there are some physical, some logical, and some philosophical and just like any other case of law, or discussion which takes evidence, to look at a single piece could lead one to believe that there is not enough to be convinced or to draw the same conclusion. But the goal has to be to provide several pieces of evidence which point to the same conclusion.
History provides us with eyewitness testimony in the case of Christ (whether you accept it or not), philosophy shows us that our social inclinations and actions follow a greater meaning, science provides us with numerous unanswerable questions and an ever growing truth, that the more we learn the more complex our universe becomes as all of our discovery presents more questions (which is opposite of the simple to complex model demonstrated by evolutionists-meaning life does not start off with the simplicity of a single sell, it starts with the complexity of DNA, which has been called a language in its own right) and as far as we know right now language especially complex language has only been demonstrated to come from conscious minds. But i digress, the evidence exists in all fields of observation for men.
Now it seems that you believe that it is possible for a complex process of carefully orchestrating change in the biology of life to happen naturally. This process is not made up of any specific pattern that has been demonstrated, it is not made up of any means that have been fully documented with any hard "smoking gun" type evidence. It is a broken history and a single thought process which based on the hard science and numbers does not and has not made the case without stretching the interpretation of data. BTW, if this complex process is specific and not random as you seem to agree with Dawkins about, it demonstrates a logic, a methodology, meaning that as you look at it, you can pull logic and theory out of it. this is giving the process the ability to reason logically. If this is the process (generalized of course) then we have just applied a consciousness to this. We could use the same phrasing to describe the actions of a living individual, but try to use it to explain an inanimate object. What makes this process so specific in its intent?
lastly, I do not think that luci and ardi are "pre-humans" and are a part of our ancestry and I don't expect 250 million year old men to surface. I don't think human civilization is that old. I think if we were we would have MUCH MUCH more evidence of it. About lucy and ardi, I think that, much like many would agree, science is looking for something specific. We are trying to find something to fill in a gap. We have been doing so for so long that it is very easy for us to begin to force the issue. I believe that this is the case with the two discoveries. I believe it happens with religion as well.
My point in all of this is not to say that something can be proven one way or the other. I just think my worldview or universe view is supported with much more evidence than many realize. Maybe its because we are in america or maybe its because the evidence that is out there is taken for granted in a passive consumer driven society, but as I weigh the logic of our physical, philosophical, and sociological world I cannot reasonably say that i believe that the cosmos, the spiritual makeup of mankind, and the revelations of the supernatural existence are not the plan of a conscious transcendent mind. Even the very fact that upon our own understanding, men began to ask the questions of our cosmos, and the first questions were not based in a naturalist mindset. we went straight to spiritual. No other life takes this approach to understanding.