Million Dollar Question

[Vteckidd]

There are 3 doors.

A B C

One of them has a million dollars.

Let us assume you choose door A (without opening it yet) as the door with a million dollars.

After your selection, I inform you that the million dollars is NOT behind door B (and I open it to show you that it indeed is not there).

The question and puzzle is, if I were to give you the choice to switch to door C, would you? And if so, why? If you would not, why? Or does it not matter?

[HalfBaked]

No, I'd stick with my 1st choice. It was my gut instinct, still going to be afterwards.

[Echonova]

No, because if you're giving me the option to switch... I picked the right door.

[thinkfast®]

I WOULD PISTOL WHIP UR ASS AND OPEN "DOOR A" WHILE MY HOMEY JUMPS ON STAGE AND "CHECKS OUT" "DOOR C" PRIZES

[Hulud]

what matt and echo said

[man]

Switch

[SL65AMG]

no because you just increased my chances of being right by 17%.....

[Whiteboy™]

i'd stick with my first choice.

[man]

no because you just increased my chances of being right by 17%.....

You sure?

[Vteckidd]

No, because if you're giving me the option to switch... I picked the right door.

Not true

If i told you B was not correct, then you have the choice of A and C

I never said that A was correct, it could still be wrong.

The question is, are you better off SWITCHING probability wise

[Vteckidd]

no because you just increased my chances of being right by 17%.....

nope i decreased your chances

[man]

nope i decreased your chances

Not true, the probability he chose correctly remains at 33%

[yudalicious]

Switch. Draw out ALL the possibilities, and it becomes clear.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Savant

[Vteckidd]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

[man]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

2/3 chance you will win with the switch

[SL65AMG]

nope i decreased your chances

????


3 doors- 33% chance of picking the right door.

I pick door A -33% right 66% wrong.

you tell me that Door B is not the correct door and thus knocks off one of the options. my chances of being right is now 50%..... 50% wrong


HOW is that decreasing my chances of being right?

[Mr_Mischif]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

bevause 2/3 times you will win a goat w/ your first choice, and if he reveals the door w/ the other goat, the door that he did not reveal must be the one w/ the car. Thus by switching you win a car 2/3 times, so it therefore makes the most sense to switch.

[Magnus213]

There is a 2/3 chance of success if you switch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

[Leadfoot_mf]

i know i am right because i can smell the money so i stick with where i smell it which happens in this case to be behind door a so give me my ****ing money.

[§treet_§peed]

what the **** is this ****? SCHOOL?

[man]

what the **** is this ****? SCHOOL?

[§treet_§peed]

PHUC JOOO SUN!!!

[man]

PHUC JOOO SUN!!!

JEW DONT WUNT NUN!!!!

[§treet_§peed]

SHEET SUN!!! I KEEEEEE UUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!

[Schugg]

There are 3 doors.

A B C

One of them has a million dollars.

Let us assume you choose door A (without opening it yet) as the door with a million dollars.

After your selection, I inform you that the million dollars is NOT behind door B (and I open it to show you that it indeed is not there).

The question and puzzle is, if I were to give you the choice to switch to door C, would you? And if so, why? If you would not, why? Or does it not matter?

dont know if anyone else said this cause i didnt check

yes because in the beginning you have a 33% chance of getting it right, when you show me the door its not behind that automatically gives you a 66% chance of being correct if you switch, because the original door is still somewhat still in the 33% chance of being right since you chose it before you were showed which door it wasnt behind.

[xlilvi3tx]

u know what? i just figured that sh!t out when i was tryin to ask how the fu*k is that sh!t still 1/3. hahah good trick of the mind.

[Clegger]

There is a 2/3 chance of success if you switch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

I agree with this satement... but only if the host does not know of the monty hall theory...

if he does know then this is irrelevent.. 50/50

[Jimmy B]

gut instinct,.. its still a 50/50% no matter what some guy wrote on wikipedia...

[Echonova]

Here's the thing, with the guy giving the money away. The point is for me to lose, therefore he keeps the money. Now I've picked A, he shows me B is empty and offer to let me switch doors to C . That tells me I'm 100% right because if I have picked the wrong door why offer it up? However by offering the third option it gives the guy giving the money away a 50/50 shot at keeping the money. Increasing HIS chances, you should never switch. Unless it was established before the game started that one wrong door would be revealed, then I would switch.

[SL65AMG]

dont know if anyone else said this cause i didnt check

yes because in the beginning you have a 33% chance of getting it right, when you show me the door its not behind that automatically gives you a 66% chance of being correct if you switch, because the original door is still somewhat still in the 33% chance of being right since you chose it before you were showed which door it wasnt behind.

that not how this works guys. read my last post. ^^^^

you do not have a higher chance of being right if you switch from A to C just because B was not the right door. your chances are then split between two doors, your chance of being right for door A is not 50% and the chance of being wrong is now 50%.

just because someone on wikipedia says your chances are greater does not mean its true. wikipedia is NOT a good source from information because any ******* with a keyboard can write about whatever it is that they want.

[xlilvi3tx]

Here's the thing, with the guy giving the money away. The point is for me to lose, therefore he keeps the money. Now I've picked A, he shows me B is empty and offer to let me switch doors to C . That tells me I'm 100% right because if I have picked the wrong door why offer it up? However by offering the third option it gives the guy giving the money away a 50/50 shot at keeping the money. Increasing HIS chances, you should never switch. Unless it was established before the game started that one wrong door would be revealed, then I would switch.

lol the thing is, he still shows u the door with nothing regardless of u picking the door with the money or not. The reason why to switch it because u are more than likely to first pick a door with nothing then the door with money since its 2/3 chance. And once u do, he offers to switch. Switching really would be the best choice because, at the beginning, u have a higher chance of winning nothing since its 2/3.

Let say u pick the 1st door with nothing, he opens door 2 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 2 with nothing, he reveals door 1 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 3 with the money, he shows u either door 1 or 2, and if u make the switch, u are goin to lose.

Since switching has a 1/3 chance to lose, it is your best bet to switch than to stay with the same door. Staying with the same door gives you a (edited) 1/3 chance win. so did i win?

[xlilvi3tx]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

^^^ i hope thats the best way to put it. and these things actually kill time making u think hard. anymore weird riddle/problems mr kidd? sh!ts fun lol

[SL65AMG]

lol the thing is, he still shows u the door with nothing regardless of u picking the door with the money or not. The reason why to switch it because u are more than likely to first pick a door with nothing then the door with money since its 2/3 chance. And once u do, he offers to switch. Switching really would be the best choice because, at the beginning, u have a higher chance of winning nothing since its 2/3.

Let say u pick the 1st door with nothing, he opens door 2 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 2 with nothing, he reveals door 1 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 3 with the money, he shows u either door 1 or 2, and if u make the switch, u are goin to lose.

Since switching has a 1/3 chance to lose, it is your best bet to switch than to stay with the same door. Staying with the same door gives you a 50/50 chance. so did i win?

you picked 3 of the possible scenarios that prove your point. the real possibility or being right or wrong is 50%/50%.


i dont feel like trying to figure out all the possible scenarios but theres a hell of a lot more than 3

[Vteckidd]

that not how this works guys. read my last post. ^^^^

you do not have a higher chance of being right if you switch from A to C just because B was not the right door. your chances are then split between two doors, your chance of being right for door A is not 50% and the chance of being wrong is now 50%.

just because someone on wikipedia says your chances are greater does not mean its true. wikipedia is NOT a good source from information because any ******* with a keyboard can write about whatever it is that they want.

your still wrong.

THe paradox is that the game show host will ALWAYS show you an empty door an take it away.

even if you picked the right door, he still has 2 "goat" doors to pick from, if you picked a "goat" door in the beginning he still has 1 "goat" door to show you an take away.

Now the answer is :
In the beginning , your original choice of picking the CORRECT DOOR is 33% (1 out of 3). The odds of you picking the WRONG door are 66%.

THe odds of you choosing an inccorect door in the BEGINNING are vastly greater than you picking the RIGHT door.

66% of the time, you will choose the wrong door, monty hall will show you the OTHER wrong door, and therefore leaving HIM with the correct door that you HAVE TO SWITCH TO.

the odds never change, its ALWAYS 33%, 66%. Even when he removes a door, your odds at that point ARE STILL %66you have the wrong door, and 33% that he has the right door.

IT NEVER CHANGES.

Even the 100 door question. Take 100 doors, pick 1, Monty removes 98 of them. Should you switch?

YES, your odds of picking the right door in the beginning are 1:100. The odds of him having the right door are vastly better (since he knows).
But your odds never got better, its still 1:100 you picked the right door, and 98% sure he picked the right door.

If you dont believe me, try it at home. Get 3 business cards and play with a friend or yourself. Mark one as the "CASH/CAR" door. shuffle them up and draw. pick one, dont look at it, remove a "Goat" door and see if you should switch.

if you do the experiment enough times, switching will prevail.

this makes my head hurt LOL.

[1000cckiller]

I WOULD PISTOL WHIP UR ASS AND OPEN "DOOR A" WHILE MY HOMEY JUMPS ON STAGE AND "CHECKS OUT" "DOOR C" PRIZES

I whip your ass and me and ricky take the stash.

[Magnus213]

Wikipedia isn't the world's most credible source, but the Monty Hall problem is famous. If you actually read the article it would make sense, they spell out the three possible scenarios and show you that two provide success.

If you read Parade magazine, a few years ago Marilyn vos Savant (highest IQ in the world) analyzed this problem and came to the same solution. 2/3 times you win if you switch doors.

[xlilvi3tx]

you picked 3 of the possible scenarios that prove your point. the real possibility or being right or wrong is 50%/50%.


i dont feel like trying to figure out all the possible scenarios but theres a hell of a lot more than 3

there is more scenarios, im just proving that picking to switch is the best choice since it had the highest proportion of winning. ok let say u stayin with that same door, u have 1/3 chance of winning.

pick door 1 within nothin, he reveals door 2 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 2 with nothing, reveal door 1 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 3 with money, reveals either door 1 or 2, stay, get the money.

those are the only choices u can get man... lol

[Jimmy B]

its still 50/50 after the one door is taken away..

the bottom line, you eather keep your door you picked, or switch.. 2 doors left, you have a 50/50 chance.. monty hall is an idiot obvously

[AnthonyF]

no, b/c you spell kid with 2 d's.


and wouldnt the million dollar question be the first one "Which do do you choose"

[SL65AMG]

there is more scenarios, im just proving that picking to switch is the best choice since it had the highest proportion of winning. ok let say u stayin with that same door, u have 1/3 chance of winning.

pick door 1 within nothin, he reveals door 2 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 2 with nothing, reveal door 1 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 3 with money, reveals either door 1 or 2, stay, get the money.

those are the only choices u can get man... lol

what if the money is not in door 3/c ? what if it was in a?