Quote Originally Posted by .blank cd View Post
Pretty sure they're still doing landline polls. If that's the case, I believe that's a pretty heavy GOP demographic (people who still have landline phones), so I think the prez takes the margin of error. I call an Obama win with 300 electors.
Gallup and Rasmussen do land line and online. The actual numbers of dems or GOP polled isnt the only factor though. Every pollster uses a different method for accounting for turnout. Some pollsters are expecting '08 level turnout for dems in general and Obama in particular, which even their own polls dont back up. It only takes a 1 or 2% drop for the dems and a 1 or 2% rise for GOP, which many polls are already calling a fact, to turn several states red at this point.


As far the end number, Obama could easily end up in he range of 310, but there is also the possibility that Romney pulls that many if he pulls Ohio, Florida, NC and Virginia early in the evening, before polls close on the west coast. Because of the way Ohio has been trumpeted as the king maker in this election, a loss there could actually influence late Obama voters to give up and stay home resulting in a Romney win in a state like Oregon or even Hawaii.