
Originally Posted by
Echonova
Wrong, add about 170 million to your five and you'd be getting close. Since the total number of combinations for Mega Millions numbers is used in all the calculations, you will calculate it first. The number of ways 5 numbers can be randomly selected from a field of 56 is: COMBIN(56,5) = 3,819,816. For each of these 3,819,816 combinations there are COMBIN(46,1) = 46 different ways to pick the sixth number (the “Mega” number). The total number of ways to pick the 6 numbers is the product of these. Thus, the total number of equally likely Mega Millions combinations is 3,819,816 x 46 = 175,711,536. you will use this number for each of the following calculations.
The number of ways the first 5 numbers on your lottery ticket can match the 5 White numbers is COMBIN(5,5) = 1. The number of ways your final number can match the Mega number is: COMBIN(1,1) = 1. The product of these is the number of ways you can win the Jackpot: COMBIN(5,5) x COMBIN(1,1) = 1. The probability of success is thus: 1/175,711,536 = 0.00000000569114597006. If you express this as “One chance in ???”, you just divide “1” by the 0.00000000569114597006, which yields “One chance in 175,711,536”.