IMO

1) The states will not win as the constitution gives the Fed govt broad powers to TAX, which is why this is being run through the IRS. The states only leg to stand on is this forces people to buy a service or pay a FINE, which would be unconstitutional. But by the Feds running it through the IRS they will say its a TAX, which is perfectly legal. Its a good show, but it wont work IMO.

2) Obama and the left realize they couldnt go to a single payer or a public option over night. There way to GRADUALLY do this is to takeover the insurance companies which will become proxies for the govt and ultimately assimilated into the govt, if it ever gets that far. Thats why everyone finally went along i think Obama convinced them that PUBLIC OPTION through takeover is the best way to achieve their ultimate goal.

3) States rights are to challenge any rule they find unconstitutional

Like i said before this will probably cause the biggest tear between States and Feds since the Civil War IMO. Its just getting started.