Quote Originally Posted by Sinfix_15 View Post
On the anniversary of the day that "John 316" became the most searched topic on the internet which would create the NCAA's "Tebow rule" from preventing such a things from ever happening again, Tebow passed for....

316 yards
31.6 yards per catch (NFL playoff record)
31.06 time of possession.

Anyone care to explain this?
I'm going with experimental probability, not theoretical. Including the possibility that Tebow throws for 500 yards would skew the results.

The probability of him playing a game on the anniversary of National Championship game is pretty high. The first week of the NFL playoffs coincides with the NC game pretty often, so I would say 1 in 7 on that.

A fair normal distribution for his passing yards would be 200 with a standard deviation of 50. I'm not looking at a z-score table for an actual probability, but his 316 is definitely within the 3 standard deviations necessary to not be an outlier. Odds are it will happen again in his career. 1 in 100, and that's a high guess.

The 31.6 per completion is not something he controlled. It relates directly to his passing yard total and his lack of accuracy. He has averaged more per completion this season. Given that he passes for 316 yards (it's unfair not to assume this), 1 in 15 that he completes only 10 passes.

Time of possession in a playoff game is generally close, especially in the pass happy NFL of today. 31:06 isn't even the correct number to relate to (32 minutes is technically 31:60), and the NFL generally doesn't include time of possession in OT into official stats. Maybe in the playoffs.

Taking out the possession one, the odds are roughly 1 in 10,500. Maybe he should buy a lottery scratchoff ticket, but the big money lottery games and Jessica Alba are out of the question.