of course it is not 'probable'. just the right amount of events had to occur at precisely the right time. but given that the eart holds the aqueous soup that is our oceans, the chances of the alignment of the proper molecules to the right degree is made possible... think of how small one nucleic acid residue is.... compare that with the size of the oceans and the elemental particles within, and your chances of proper alignment increase significantly.

i agree that it was an amazing event that occured and odds were stacked against it, but it happened. This is why you do not have life popping up on every single planet or asteroid in the universe.... the odds are small, but there are still odds.

just a fraction of a chance is still a more scientifically sound explanation than God creating the universe in 7 days, moses parting the red sea, jesus rising from the dead, etc etc.