There is plenty of reason to believe that the surplus of FY2001 turned into a deficit in FY02 because of 2 things. The first is that the US was in a small recession caused by the dot com bubble bursting. The second, is the 9/11 attacks resulted in another small recession.
I like this reference from University of California-Santa Barbara better because it also shows govt revenue.
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays
The only TARP funds that have not been repaid are the funds given to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All other funds have been paid back, with interest.
Its very hard to tell if deficits will come down. Right now we are paying some of the taxes and fees for Obamacare, but the real spending hasnt started yet. Every model I have seen for the effects of Obamacare have been from biased organizations and come under pretty heavy criticism.
What we do know is that employers that do have the flexibility to do so, are going to adjust their practices to reduce their exposure to Obamacare. Dardin Restaurants recently said they were testing that policy in select regions now.
For a business yes, for govt its not nearly that simple. Because a govt cannot create wealth, only take it away from those that do, it stands to reason that policies that take more wealth out of the economy will hurt the economy.