same thing or is it? lol jk, just move all that sh!t around hahaOriginally Posted by SL65AMG
same thing or is it? lol jk, just move all that sh!t around haha
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Seriously. The answer is spelled out and people are still refusing to accept it.
Mens et Manus
Course 2
You said it before I could
Dude, if there are two doors left, there are only two possible outcomes. Either it is behind the one you're gonna open, or it's behind the other one. It's the same as if I flip a coin three times and it lands on heads each time. There isn't some weird probability of it landing on tails the next time.
x2
The thing about it is, if you look at the overall statistics, yes there is.
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If there are only two choices, there is no possible way to split the probability in to anything other than 50:50. That stupid wikipedia page just uses a bunch of numbers and big words to confuse people. The ratio they use is all wrong. Yes there are still 2/3 doors left unopened, but only 1 of the 2 doors contains the prize.
Any retard with a computer can make a wikipedia page, and educate stupid people with faulty knowledge.
Realize that the entire problem considers situations, not choices. Out of the three possible situations possible, you win 2 of 3 times by switching. I still can't believe that people are denying the answer. If Wikipedia scares you, here.
http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.monty.hall.html
http://www.letsmakeadeal.com/problem.htm (features Marilyn vos Savant, who I already referred to)
http://web.mit.edu/rsi/First-Week/mi...minisample.pdf
It goes on and on.
Mens et Manus
Course 2
Oh, my god. Those three sources are even worse than the wikipedia page. You guys can convince yourselves into thinking what ever you want. But if you really do believe this crap, then I have some winning lottery numbers I'm willing to sell you.
lol... can't believe this **** is still debatable... first of all, stuff on wikipedia isn't always right, but there ARE links to credible references on the bottom of the page so you can check.
secondly, it doesn't take a ****ing genius like savant to figure out why you should switch. the original wording of this famous riddle was ambiguous, but the OP's wording made it clear that the host knows where the money is and opens a door with NO money, thus the answer is SWITCH.
simple explanation: your original choice is wrong 2 out of 3 times, AND the host will ALWAYS open another wrong door, meaning 2 out of 3 times both you and the host pick the WRONG door, meaning 2 out of 3 times the LAST door left has the money, meaning you should switch.
It's fallacious to ignore the host's pick and think that since there's only 2 doors left, your chances are 50/50, since which door the host chooses is DEPENDENT on your first choice. Ie, if you choose A(empty), the host will HAVE to open B (empty), since C contains the money and he can't open that door. therefore you can't simply ignore the host's choice of door and just consider the 2 doors left. If this doesn't change your mind, the easiest thing to do is to draw out ALL the possibilities, and if that still doesn't change your mind... well, let's hope you are one good lookn person.
Last edited by yudalicious; 12-02-2007 at 05:28 AM.
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I get it. Like ^ said, its better to switch just because the second situation is directly dependent on the first situation. The host will ALWAYS pick the wrong door. If you pick the wrong door, the host has to pick the remaining last wrong door and has no choice. Im going to present this in my statistics class
Learning everyday.
You've got to be kidding me. I give up, then. If you don't believe it when it comes from colleges (Drexel and MIT), then I don't know what it takes. Joke's on you for refusing to accept the correct solution.
It's a paradox. It's supposed to be counter-intuitive.
Mens et Manus
Course 2
My father used this arguement as well.
If you flip a coin 10 times an it lands on HEADS 10 times in a row, on the 11th flip is it more likely to lan on heads or tails?
the answer is its still 50%, just cause HEADS came up 10 times in a row doesnt mean that now Tails has a much higher chance.
I dunno, my mind is too asleep right now to argue lol
Enterprise Data Resources- Ecommerce Project Manager
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^^ its almost 1. lolol. ive been up since 7. you young kids these days.
The Carbon Fibered R6
Long weeks i sleep in on Sundays lol.
I only get 4-5 hours a night during the week
Last edited by AnthonyF; 12-02-2007 at 12:22 PM.
Enterprise Data Resources- Ecommerce Project Manager
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i'm about the same. i get home for work i just want to relax. i just have a hard time sleeping late. seems as if i am missing everything...back on topic...
The Carbon Fibered R6
LOLOLOL....ive got to be careful which button i push. lol. i pushed edit ur post. haha... my bad.
The Carbon Fibered R6
Yes, when you are dealing with instantaneous probability. So, if before you flip the coin you guess, it is 50/50. On the other hand, the probability of getting heads 10 times in a row is (1/2)^10. It just depends on the perspective, instantaneous vs. total.
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^^ my head hurts now
The Carbon Fibered R6
are u serious......? i basically laid out all the choices what happens and yall still cant see how its 2/3 of winning if you switch? well im happy i got that sh!t lol gl to who still cant get it lol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psycho%27s_balls
I don't need sources for this sh*t, it's already common knowledge. Ahh yeah.
OH GOD NO! They took it down
Exactly. Do you accept the truth now?OH GOD NO! They took it down
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09:19, 2 December 2007 Bongwarrior (Talk | contribs) deleted "Psycho's balls" (: Speedy deleted per (CSD g3), was pure vandalism. using TW)
I got IP banned
lol, thats hilarious09:19, 2 December 2007 Bongwarrior (Talk | contribs) deleted "Psycho's balls" (: Speedy deleted per (CSD g3), was pure vandalism. using TW)
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Alright, we discussed this problem in Probability my sophomore year. I'm sure many people have kind of covered this, but here's my take. There are only three general situations for the switch.
1. You originally pick a goat. The host shows the other goat. You switch and get the money.
2. You pick the other goat. The host shows you the first goat. You switch and get the money.
3. You pick the money. The host shows you a goat. You switch and get the other goat.
2 out of 3 times you win.
Now let's look at it if you don't switch.
1. You initially pick a goat. The host shows you the other goat. You don't switch. You get the goat.
2. You pick the other goat. The host shows you the first goat. You don't switch. You get the goat.
3. You pick the money. The host shows you a goat. You don't switch. You get the money.
2 out of 3 times you will get the goat without switching.
Common sense wise, you're right it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. But looking at it mathematically, you always should switch. I'm an industrial engineering major at Tech, probability and statistics is what I do. A lot of times probability goes against common sense, it just happens.
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