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Thread: Analysts say Gas could drop $2.00/gal..

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    Default Analysts say Gas could drop $2.00/gal..

    If the House Bill on Speculation goes through..

    http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/...GISLATION.html

    US House bill goes after energy market speculation
    06.20.08, 3:17 PM ET


    United States - By Jasmin Melvin
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Legislation introduced in the House of Representatives on Friday would crack down on over-the-counter crude oil trading and go after speculators suspected of pushing oil prices to record levels.

    The Prevent Unfair Manipulation of Prices, or PUMP, act, would eliminate loopholes allowing energy traders to amass excessive profits while inflating the price of oil for consumers, by trading on foreign markets and entering into other deals that currently escape federal oversight.

    The bill's main sponsor, Rep. Bart Stupak, Democratic chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, said excessive speculation was "killing our economy."

    Speculation usually accounts for only $8 to $9 per barrel to the cost of crude, but in current markets, he said, speculation is adding about $65 to $70 a barrel -- almost half the price of oil.

    "We don't mind people making money," Stupak said. "We're not saying end speculation. We're saying end the excessive speculation that continues to put a higher and higher floor (on oil prices)."

    Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee said the law of supply and demand, which some have cited as causing the rise in oil prices, are not at work here. "These are the laws of what happens when you allow manipulation and excessive speculation, because you don't have a fair review of these markets," he said.

    Under the bill, overseas trading of energy commodities, such as on the InterContinental Exchange, would be subject to the same rules as U.S.-regulated markets, if traders use U.S.-based computer terminals or the transaction has a delivery point on American soil.

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees futures trading on U.S. exchanges, would also get authority to monitor bilateral trades and swaps that occur between two parties and are not negotiated on a regulated exchange.

    "The CFTC has allowed 117 different exceptions for swaps," Stupak said. "When you allow 117 exceptions, you have part of the market that's basically doing what it wants with little or no oversight from the government."

    Stupak said this allows traders to drive the price of oil to what is most beneficial for them. The PUMP bill would require reporting and recordkeeping for all such transactions, allowing the CFTC to monitor for fraud and manipulation.

    The bill would also require the CFTC to set position limits on the number of energy contracts a trader could control "over all markets" and would no longer allow speculators to be exempt from position limits for hedging risks, unless they have "legitimate anticipated business needs."

    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would retain the authority to prosecute market manipulation, and get the added authority to freeze the assets of companies it prosecutes.

    Companies would no longer be able to liquidate and distribute their assets before a verdict to avoid monetary penalties.

    The legislation has more than 50 co-sponsors, including some Republicans. Additionally, a coalition of consumer, labor and business organizations, representing mainly the airline industry, endorsed the PUMP bill. (Editing by Walter Bagley)

    Copyright 2008 Reuters, Click for Restriction

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    Edited.. felt like quoting myself was vain.

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    If the airlines and auto makers both got their lobbyists on the case, I could see this passing with flying colors. $2/gallon would be a sight for sore eyes lol.

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    this is excactly what we need to happen. i glad to see some politicians doing there job! i hope it passes through, but i doubt it will b/c im sure many of these representatives have their hands in the oil $$$$$$, so they will try to veto this bill. lets cross our fingers and hope our politicians arent soo greedy they hurt the general popluation.

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    :boobies::jerkit::jerkit::jerkit::jerkit::jerkit:!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheScotsman
    :boobies::jerkit::jerkit::jerkit::jerkit::jerkit:!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nissan Sean
    this is excactly what we need to happen. i glad to see some politicians doing there job! i hope it passes through, but i doubt it will b/c im sure many of these representatives have their hands in the oil $$$$$$, so they will try to veto this bill. lets cross our fingers and hope our politicians arent soo greedy they hurt the general popluation.
    The lobbyists will put money in their pocket, so don't worry about them.

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    I've been paying attention to this bill for a while and I think its going to pass easily.

    I dont think gas will immediately drop that much, but I do think it will make at least a $1 a gallon drop within a couple of weeks of the bill passing, then another, smaller drop in crude oil prices after it goes into effect. The real drop will happen in mid to late 2010 when the first rigs go online, even though it will be several years before the oil hits the market in quantity, having that drilling rig up and moving will send a message that the money train from the US is about to get alot slimmer.

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    i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 0p7!mu5
    i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.
    In case you havnt noticed, no one really cares about alternative fuels now. Its only a talking point on the news.

    Alternative fuels are on the horizon, but I seriously doubt we will see an economiclly viable alternative to oil for at least the next 2 decades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 0p7!mu5
    i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.
    AND with gas dropping in price American's will then say "hey... forget the Prius (or any other number of great economical cars) and lets pull the Hummer back out and drive to work in it cuz its cool..."

    And so the wastefulness continues. Now of course I'd love to pay less per gallon, but this teaches American's in particular them wasteful bishes that u cant just use stuff without being aware of what ur doin to us all. I just dont understand why everyone MUST drive an SUV and not actually use it for its purpose, or a truck or anything other than a car; to go from point A to point B.

    A car was built for that reason. If u got kids get a a station wagon (them Volvo V70's are fly to me personally) or a freakin van (cuz thats what its built for). But EVERYONE in a SUV to make u feel, what, special?

    Since I drive a small car I can see this. I just dont understand how u can spend so much for no damn reason and it annoys me. Buy the car for what its built for not for how it freakin looks. I can even pick on the sports cars, but then thats offendin people on here and I'd technically be a hypocryte due to my motor swap.

    Just sayin...
    Last edited by blaknoize; 06-24-2008 at 05:51 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blaknoize
    AND with gas dropping in price American's will then say "hey... forget the Prius (or any other number of great economical cars) and lets pull the Hummer back out and drive to work in it cuz its cool..."
    Bad example because ironically the Prius is more damaging to the environment than a hummer is.

    http://www.impactlab.com/2007/03/14/...mental-damage/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Verik
    Bad example because ironically the Prius is more damaging to the environment than a hummer is.

    http://www.impactlab.com/2007/03/14/...mental-damage/
    Thats why I added a disclaimer (...any number of other econmical cars...) It was an example because Americans, when squeezed, will actually downsize to "save" overall. I coulda said Civic, but I used a line from a newspaper on this subject.

    So pick on the one item I use, like the media, when u know exactly what I meant.

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    I agree with this bill, however, being in the crude speculation market myself I have mixed feelings.

    Everything that will be "fixed" by this bill (i.e. the gas price drop, which is only a band-aid to the symptoms of another problem) will only be counteracted by the Cap-In-Trade bill that will be proposed within the next few months.

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    Quote Originally Posted by se7en
    Everything that will be "fixed" by this bill (i.e. the gas price drop, which is only a band-aid to the symptoms of another problem) will only be counteracted by the Cap-In-Trade bill that will be proposed within the next few months.
    Any bill that even officially recognizes climate change should immediately be thrown out as nothing more than political propaganda. There is absolutely no proof of global warming.
    Last edited by BanginJimmy; 06-23-2008 at 08:57 PM.

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    funny how politics and lack of research on the general public's part kills that isnt it? I agree with ya but still it would be nice to find a way to not have to go through this again, because you know at some point and time we will.

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    3$ a gallon would be nice. anything but 4+. I hate going to races at 4$ a gallon.
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    Hah, what a joke. Outlawing the oil futures market. Did they forget that oil is a worldwide market? That will only drive the majority of oil trade overseas, making it out of control for the U.S.

    Why the big focus solely on oil? What about grains? Have they not noticed the huge run up in corn/cotton/wheat? Why don't we just let the government own all of the oil fields and all of the farms in the United States. It worked so well for the Soviet Union in the late 20's and early 30's. *sarcasm*

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    Quote Originally Posted by Verik
    Hah, what a joke. Outlawing the oil futures market. Did they forget that oil is a worldwide market? That will only drive the majority of oil trade overseas, making it out of control for the U.S.

    Why the big focus solely on oil? What about grains? Have they not noticed the huge run up in corn/cotton/wheat? Why don't we just let the government own all of the oil fields and all of the farms in the United States. It worked so well for the Soviet Union in the late 20's and early 30's. *sarcasm*
    Better yet why not just do nothing and let gas prices continue to rise?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Verik
    Hah, what a joke. Outlawing the oil futures market. Did they forget that oil is a worldwide market? That will only drive the majority of oil trade overseas, making it out of control for the U.S.
    Unlikely. The U.S. consumes 1/4 of all oil consumed per day. That would be an enormous loss to oil companies.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fcman
    Unlikely. The U.S. consumes 1/4 of all oil consumed per day. That would be an enormous loss to oil companies.
    Your not very bright with international financial trade are you? I didn't say that the US would stop consuming oil. However it will place the control of oil prices in that of the rest of the world if the US starts restricting speculative trade from inside the states. It is a worldwide market so congress can only limit the US's involvement in that market (which unfortunately is a horrible decision, as are most when the government decides to intervene in a free market) meaning that the people who are speculating the prices we pay for crude oil is going to be done by foreigners because we won't be legally able to ourselves.

    And Tony, yeah this is capitalism. I'd much rather the government not touch or try and restrict free markets. Oil is a very inelastic good in our society and the markets are coming into realization of that fact. If you want a government that plays and ****s up free markets, head over to china and enjoy socialism.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Verik
    Your not very bright with international financial trade are you? I didn't say that the US would stop consuming oil. However it will place the control of oil prices in that of the rest of the world if the US starts restricting speculative trade from inside the states. It is a worldwide market so congress can only limit the US's involvement in that market (which unfortunately is a horrible decision, as are most when the government decides to intervene in a free market) meaning that the people who are speculating the prices we pay for crude oil is going to be done by foreigners because we won't be legally able to ourselves.

    And Tony, yeah this is capitalism. I'd much rather the government not touch or try and restrict free markets. Oil is a very inelastic good in our society and the markets are coming into realization of that fact. If you want a government that plays and ****s up free markets, head over to china and enjoy socialism.

    Tony and others want socialism, but wont admit it. Banning speculation is a joke, like i mentioned in another thread: speculation is 100% of the price of any given publicly traded item.

    Ok, say this bill gets the US market on oil to drop. So lets say the NYMEX is going to be at 70$ a barrel for crude, what makes any intelligent person think the dozen other exchanges in the world are going to be at 70 bucks a barrel. They wont, because they will still be openly traded instead of socialized like so many people in the US wants. Each exchange is normally within fractions of dollar to the same price, I dont see how socializing our market will convince every other market to drop with ours.

    Socialist bills like this frighten me, and so do people that have no clue what market prices are based on. And reading a bill that says 60 bucks of the oil price is speculation makes me laugh in terror, partly due to the fact that politicians think they can get away with such BS, but mostly because there are people ignorant enough to believe them.

    As much as i want 2$ a gallon gas, I do not want it at the expense of a free market (the little we have left).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny
    Tony and others want socialism, but wont admit it. Banning speculation is a joke, like i mentioned in another thread: speculation is 100% of the price of any given publicly traded item.

    Ok, say this bill gets the US market on oil to drop. So lets say the NYMEX is going to be at 70$ a barrel for crude, what makes any intelligent person think the dozen other exchanges in the world are going to be at 70 bucks a barrel. They wont, because they will still be openly traded instead of socialized like so many people in the US wants. Each exchange is normally within fractions of dollar to the same price, I dont see how socializing our market will convince every other market to drop with ours.

    Socialist bills like this frighten me, and so do people that have no clue what market prices are based on. And reading a bill that says 60 bucks of the oil price is speculation makes me laugh in terror, partly due to the fact that politicians think they can get away with such BS, but mostly because there are people ignorant enough to believe them.

    As much as i want 2$ a gallon gas, I do not want it at the expense of a free market (the little we have left).
    Socialist??? Name me ONE market that is completely unregulated in the United States. I didn't say cap the gas prices.. thats socialism. I said set the market right, every industry has standards to which they have to operate and those standards are NOT self imposed. When speculation in the energy sector is out of control it needs to be stopped, I don't know specifics as some may but I do know something has to give.

    I guess the "non socialist" side is.. **** the economy, the private sector needs to have absolute freedom even at the detriment of our very being.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Verik
    And Tony, yeah this is capitalism. I'd much rather the government not touch or try and restrict free markets. Oil is a very inelastic good in our society and the markets are coming into realization of that fact. If you want a government that plays and ****s up free markets, head over to china and enjoy socialism.
    We borrow from them to pay for our war in Iraq and you're criticizing their form of government? Not saying its the way of life but don't be quick to shoot down China's government because they have become a global economic superpower while the U.S is on a decline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Verik
    Why the big focus solely on oil? What about grains? Have they not noticed the huge run up in corn/cotton/wheat? Why don't we just let the government own all of the oil fields and all of the farms in the United States. It worked so well for the Soviet Union in the late 20's and early 30's. *sarcasm*
    They cant say anything about farm prodiced items because it was liberal legislation that started this mess. The whole ethanol from corn deal is driving up corn prices, which drive up feed prices, which drive up meat prices. Corn is now more profitable to grow than soy and wheat so more farmers are growing corn. This lowers the supply of soy and wheat which drives up prices on bread and everything made from soy and wheat.

    The flooding in the heartland is horrible, but maybe some good will come out of it. I am hoping that the huge price increases we will see until next summer will force congress to dump any fuel from food projects.

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    I gurantee if and when gas drops, nothing else will go down.
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    I'll believe it when I see it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BLK JDM
    I'll believe it when I see it.
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    i cant wait to see anything under $3.00 (i use to say if it hits $3/gal ill be walking...yet i'm still driving ) lol



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    Quote Originally Posted by PBS
    i cant wait to see anything under $3.00 (i use to say if it hits $3/gal ill be walking...yet i'm still driving ) lol

    You aint the only one, never really thought about it till you said that though.

    And I'm all for this if it works, but I'll have to agree with the I'll believe it when I see it.
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    i would be highly surprised if something like this would even pass... politicians pockets would be hit too hard. i'm sure we will keep getting rapped

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    this will never happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sport1.3
    this will never happen.

    Don't be so sure about that. I'd expect this in 2009. Especially if Obama's taxes go through on the oil companies.

    I'm torn about this bill. While I certainly would like to see gas prices go down, I'm terribly skeptical of any government intervention into private business affairs. But then again, I don't know that I would be complaining if I was paying 2 bucks a gallon. Money can easily change political ideals.

    That being said, I seriously doubt it would go down that much. Govt could see the price decrease and then boost taxes....If they know there is money, they'll take it...

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    When things are too good to be true, They usually are. Theres nothign wrong with hope I would love to see that $2.00 drop.


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    Yea right.

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    I don't think prices will be droping anytime soon but i do beleive the price of crude oil is overvalued.

    edit: yeah, I replied without reading, didn't get the chance at the moment lol.
    Last edited by umairejaz; 06-24-2008 at 11:09 PM.

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    I would love for the price of petrol to fall. I would be quite happy if it was to be back at $2/gallon. But I believe that if it were to be like that again, things will have to change. I think we should have at least some sort of system like how most of the european countries have it. Higher taxes and and insurance on larger more fuel consuming vehicles. Doing that would keep our demand for fuel to be any higher than it is now. At least then most of the americans would not get back in the old mindset of having a big stupid SUV only for basic transportation, unless it's that important. America's love affair for trucks has got to end or at least come down. Maybe that will encourage the auto manufactors to build more fuel efficient and lighter trucks. Call it impossible but I can see at least higher tax on the bigger vehicles beneficial to us.

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    Communism seems to be doing well for the Chinese. About 60% of goods in America come from China nowadays.

    As much as I hate speculators and oil companies, a rapid price drop is probably the worst thing that could happen. People will go right back to their old habits of wasting fuel with SUV's and bad driving habits. Research and interest regarding alternative energy will die out. Effective public transportation will continue to not exist.

    If we are ever going to cut our dependance on fossil feuls (which are a non-renewable resource) we are going to have to be provided with an incentive to do the research and work necessary. We really should be trying to find a source of renewable energy now... before it's too late.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NawzDawg!!1!
    Communism seems to be doing well for the Chinese. About 60% of goods in America come from China nowadays.

    As much as I hate speculators and oil companies, a rapid price drop is probably the worst thing that could happen. People will go right back to their old habits of wasting fuel with SUV's and bad driving habits. Research and interest regarding alternative energy will die out. Effective public transportation will continue to not exist.

    If we are ever going to cut our dependance on fossil feuls (which are a non-renewable resource) we are going to have to be provided with an incentive to do the research and work necessary. We really should be trying to find a source of renewable energy now... before it's too late.
    Theres no actual proof that oil is a fossil fuel, and on top of that theres been viable proof that oil is potentially a renewable resource. So the whole issue of supply is completely moot.

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