Analysts say Gas could drop $2.00/gal..

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Originally Posted by Danny

You and others keep tossing around the word speculation as it makes up only a part of the market price. Soon as you and others use that complete BS to back up a claim then i wont listen to you. because its crap.

You also say its "out of control". What does that mean, and how do you know it is? Every other market is aloud to run and crash, but the energy market is not aloud to do that?

Your standards are based around this allusion of speculation, similar to global warming. Come up with a REAL cause, then I will listen to your solution.

Its just funny that oil runs 100% in 2 years and you and everyone else start complaining about speculation. Yet you speculate every day of your life. Death to speculators, then we can all be poor but even, just like you want.

While your at it, all securities should not be aloud to fluctuate more than 30% from their IPO to the day they close because those dam speculators will under or over value everything! AND we should really do away with the whole stock market, futures, options, and everything else because everything is over or undervalued accord to you and like minded people. Why not just freeze the markets and let the govt control the price, is not that what you want? Or does it just "stop with oil".

As you say "somthing has to give", i could not agree more. Its just the whole "speculation" argument that drives me crazy, its the same people that yell "global warming!"

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When the price of a barrel of oil jumps on the news that Israel may attack Iran please tell me what that is?

Lets define speculation: engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, esp. trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.

There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that a barrel of oil jumps when Israel implies that they may have to go to Iran unless the price is based on some kind of speculative action because otherwise.. the two are irrelevant until that attack effects the supply of oil. THAT IS OUT OF CONTROL.

Free trade is all well and good, but like I said no market operates without some kind of regulation otherwise you create a strong black market that garners sizeable control. Capitalism works with rules of trade being set forth. Our laws are based off of the constitution.. by your rationale the Constitution is useless because it restricts citizens from doing whatever they want.

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Originally Posted by NawzDawg!!1!

As much as I hate speculators and oil companies, a rapid price drop is probably the worst thing that could happen. People will go right back to their old habits of wasting fuel with SUV's and bad driving habits. Research and interest regarding alternative energy will die out. Effective public transportation will continue to not exist.

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That is like saying don't do research on a cure for AIDS since the virus forces individuals to be more sexually responsible. Trust me.. people realize there is a crisis even if the price of oil drops.

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Originally Posted by ironchef

Theres no actual proof that oil is a fossil fuel, and on top of that theres been viable proof that oil is potentially a renewable resource. So the whole issue of supply is completely moot.

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supply is right there with speculation and global warming, like a said. A complete joke. We are sitting on an estimated 3 trillion barrel reserve in the Rockys. Not to mention all the other reserves we can legally/potentially drill. The oil companies have a reason for not drilling, and we should make sure they are legal/ethical reasons. that would be a start.

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Originally Posted by Danny

So in other words, drop free market on the commodities that absorb a large percentage of our spending money?

So say you socialize the oil market somehow (even though its globally regulated and traded), then what? Somehow its magically 50 bucks a barrel now, success right? Now imagine years down the road, everyone is spending less on oil. Now everyone realizes that water is too expensive, I mean ****.. they pull it out the ground just like oil... its should be almost free! Tonys big govt comes in and regulates that too. Yahhh.. everyone is happy for a few years untill we realize: "dam our cell phones are still expensive, its wayyy over valued". Tonys big govt steps in again, and BAM *poof*: unlimited minutes for 25$ a month, yeee hawwww... We are in business now. Couple years later, everyone realizes that food will not stop increasing in price, tonys govt steps in a caps that too. Mean while we forgot that Joe Schmoe lost his job at the AT&T because the govt cut his profits and no longer had a position for him. Joe Scmoe 2 lost his job at the farm, hist wifes salary was cut by 30% because her companys profit was cut also. Now they only spend 50 bucks instead of 100 a week at the grocery, so Mr. Krogers lays off 50% of his employees and the cycle starts over again.

So now we have the natural cycle of production/purchasing with the added in cycle of govt induced pricing/purchasing. Sounds worse to me.

Letting the govt have a foot in the door on regulating one thing will let them regulate everything else, just takes time.

I think there is some solutions elsewhere. maybe some investigations trying to figure out if there is collusion between auto manf. and oil companies, etc. Socialism should be the last resort.

Now if we are talking regulating the market so that futures traders stop any currently illegal practices allowing them to have a larger purchasing power than they legally are aloud (trading accounts offshore for example). Then thats a completely different topic.

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Like I said I agree with you, but come on you know whats going on in Oil is bs. I liken it to the manipulation we saw in the pennies when we did it, and how ****ing lame it was.

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Originally Posted by tony

Lets define speculation: engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, esp. trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.

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Tony seriously, I know this is the third time i have typed this to you, so here it is ONE MORE TIME.

SPECULATION is NOT a fraction of the current price, it is 100% of the current price of all freely traded goods.

I dont know how else to say that. So when you say there is "too much" speculation to "over valued due to speculators" you are just being a fool and stating the obvious. My arguement is not that speculation doesnt exist, its that it makes up only a fraction of the price and that it is "out of control".

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There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that a barrel of oil jumps when Israel implies that they may have to go to Iran unless the price is based on some kind of speculative action because otherwise.. the two are irrelevant until that attack effects the supply of oil. THAT IS OUT OF CONTROL.

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once again showing that you have no clue. I will assume you have never traded a day in your life, and if you did it was unsuccessful or lucky.

YES, it is possible. Soon as you learn the economy and world markets run on ONE thing and one thing ONLY is the sooner you will understand my point: the world economy and markets run on one thing: RUMORS and SPECULATION. Most would say they are the same thing, I agree.

Ironchef trades, and will agree. As we have both spent countless hours making and loosing tons of money on rumors and speculation, its just how it works. There is nothing else to do but speculate on rumors or speculate on facts. You have to choose one or the other, the world is not traded on logic, unfortunately.

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Originally Posted by ironchef

Like I said I agree with you, but come on you know whats going on in Oil is bs. I liken it to the manipulation we saw in the pennies when we did it, and how ****ing lame it was.

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Dude we both know manipulation and shakes are just part of that game, and we kicked thier asses on occasion. BUT manipulation in that sense is illegal, cause its essentiall collusion (each MM works with the other MMs to raise or lower the price).

This thread was not started about manipulation, it was in reference to speculation. Swing over to the collusion/manipulation by the MMs (OIl Companies and Opec in this case) and i will jump on board with you. see what im trying to get at? One is the traders fault and the other is the MMs fault. My figer is pointed at the MM, not the trader.

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Originally Posted by Danny

So say you socialize the oil market somehow (even though its globally regulated and traded), then what? Somehow its magically 50 bucks a barrel now, success right? Now imagine years down the road, everyone is spending less on oil. Now everyone realizes that water is too expensive, I mean ****.. they pull it out the ground just like oil... its should be almost free! Tonys big govt comes in and regulates that too. Yahhh.. everyone is happy for a few years untill we realize: "dam our cell phones are still expensive, its wayyy over valued". Tonys big govt steps in again, and BAM *poof*: unlimited minutes for 25$ a month, yeee hawwww... We are in business now. Couple years later, everyone realizes that food will not stop increasing in price, tonys govt steps in a caps that too. Mean while we forgot that Joe Schmoe lost his job at the AT&T because the govt cut his profits and no longer had a position for him. Joe Scmoe 2 lost his job at the farm, hist wifes salary was cut by 30% because her companys profit was cut also. Now they only spend 50 bucks instead of 100 a week at the grocery, so Mr. Krogers lays off 50% of his employees and the cycle starts over again.

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Okay at this point I have to wonder.. do you pull this stuff out of your ass? Better yet do you even read my responses? Regulation is much different than control.

Lets simplify this for you.. two sentences, the only difference between them is Regulate and Control.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and control the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and regulate the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

People like you had your turn and within the span of a decade we have seen a stock market crash, housing market crash and now inflated energy prices while the Dollar continues to tank.. when companies like Enron and Countrywide operate with little regulation we see what happens.. the will of the people come second to those profits.

Funny how a lot of you want to regulate what goes on Iraq so badly but noo.. don't touch the policies here in America, we're too good for that.

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Originally Posted by Danny

YES, it is possible. Soon as you learn the economy and world markets run on ONE thing and one thing ONLY is the sooner you will understand my point: the world economy and markets run on one thing: RUMORS and SPECULATION. Most would say they are the same thing, I agree.

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You support drilling for more oil correct?

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Originally Posted by tony

Okay at this point I have to wonder.. do you pull this stuff out of your ass? Better yet do you even read my responses? Regulation is much different than control.

Lets simplify this for you.. two sentences, the only difference between them is Regulate and Control.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and control the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and regulate the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

People like you had your turn and within the span of a decade we have seen a stock market crash, housing market crash and now inflated energy prices while the Dollar continues to tank.. when companies like Enron and Countrywide operate with little regulation we see what happens.. the will of the people come second to those profits.

Funny how a lot of you want to regulate what goes on Iraq so badly but noo.. don't touch the policies here in America, we're too good for that.

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Regulation is fine, and necessary. You are just for regulating what you seem to think speculation is, and i am for regulating things like collusion (something i am not 100% sure is the problem, but worth investigating.)

Ok with that in mind, do you mind the regulation that companies are subjected too when they finally move out of the pinks, otcbbs to the nasdaqs and nyses? Once they're on the Nasdaq they have to be way more accountable, and I guess thats how I see this bill, that it will make the "companies (oil, opec, cars, whatever)" more accountable.

And then on the same front, why would the car manufacturers want to collude with the oil companies on the price of oil? Car companies make bigger profit margins off of those gigantic SUVs, not ****ty little econoboxes that get 30mpg. So they're all losing profits because of the oil prices being where they are, which is definitely not what they want.

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Originally Posted by tony

You support drilling for more oil correct?

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Of course. But american oil companies have been given the green light to drill and pump. yet that have not, i want to know why exactly.

BTW, lets get back into trading next summer, I miss it :(. Also lets do FOREX :D.

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Originally Posted by ironchef

Ok with that in mind, do you mind the regulation that companies are subjected too when they finally move out of the pinks, otcbbs to the nasdaqs and nyses? Once they're on the Nasdaq they have to be way more accountable, and I guess thats how I see this bill, that it will make the "companies (oil, opec, cars, whatever)" more accountable.

And then on the same front, why would the car manufacturers want to collude with the oil companies on the price of oil? Car companies make bigger profit margins off of those gigantic SUVs, not ****ty little econoboxes that get 30mpg. So they're all losing profits because of the oil prices being where they are, which is definitely not what they want.

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Im am 100% for accountability. Im simply try to get at that once a bil uses this BS as reason to why oil is expensive. It looses respect from me:

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"Speculation usually accounts for only $8 to $9 per barrel to the cost of crude, but in current markets, he said, speculation is adding about $65 to $70 a barrel -- almost half the price of oil.

"We don't mind people making money," Stupak said. "We're not saying end speculation. We're saying end the excessive speculation that continues to put a higher and higher floor (on oil prices)."

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Why would cars collude with oil? Not sure that they do. But the fact that GM scrapped all thier electric cars and sold the patent for the battery's to exxon is kinda odd. yea could most likey blame that on free market, but it still caught my eye none the less. And with current technology GMs hybrids are still doing like 25mpg or some crap. Just seems like fuel efficiency is growing like a turd compared to every other major industry. Enough so that its worth an investigation to insure everyone is playing kindly.

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Originally Posted by ironchef

BTW, lets get back into trading next summer, I miss it :(. Also lets do FOREX :D.

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im all for it. Think about to unsubscribe to this thread. IM me somtime

in summary:

- im for regulation, just not regulation of free trade/free pricing
- speculation is 100% of the price, not 60$ like that bill says

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Originally Posted by Danny

Of course. But american oil companies have been given the green light to drill and pump. yet that have not, i want to know why exactly.

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You support drilling for more oil but I don't understand how the economy works?

Better yet I had to go back and look in the very thread YOU started cause one minute I get confirmation of how it works then the next I don't. Taken from YOUR thread and the two posts were consecutive.

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Originally Posted by tony

The way the oil industry is set up HAS to be a violation of Antitrust laws here in America. I do not think the oil companies need to be punished directly but I do think the government needs to take a look at how everything is structured. Section 1 of the Sherman Act states:

"Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal. Every person who shall make any contract or engage in any combination or conspiracy hereby declared to be illegal shall be deemed guilty of a felony, and, on conviction thereof, shall be punished by fine...."

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 countries who controls 35% of the worlds oil and those countries come together.. agree on a set amount of production therefor fixing gas prices, a complete violation.

I am for a government that steps in and says speculation on the price of oil is not in the best interest of the people and has become out of control. The government is there to step in to an unfair market and set things straight without too much of a strong arm. The government could not put a cap on gas prices, that would be disastrous but putting forth the infrastructure for Biodiesel (40mpg and produced from waste) Cellulosic Ethanol (does not use corn) Hydrogen.. whatever, viable competition can be made.

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Originally Posted by Danny

Thats how the market works, it sucks for us somtimes, but thats just how the game is played. So you want to socialize the oil/energy market to get rid of what you call "speculation". Why not just socialize every market, because I hate to break it to you speculation is NOT a fraction of the price of any given commodity, it is 100% of the price. Futures are traded (and every other single market on the planet) on speculation. Your life and capital runs on speculation. So yea, there are lots of people that buy into the "there is a 50% speculation surcharge on oil right now" garbage spilling out of some politicians /news channels mouths; but that does not make it the least bit true. The next time you talk to a futures/stock/ any type of finical person that is worth a cent will tell you that speculation is 100% of the market price.

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You said reference a financial person, no one better than Warren Buffet;

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On a commodities bubble
Buffett: "I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.

Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."

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I will concede his point on the market taking care of itself but this bubble is literally squeezing the life out of American citizens and at some point as I said before.. something has to give.

Furthermore, even being an investor myself on a much smaller scale than most.. I still hold what it best for the people higher than what is best for my investments. If more individuals had that mentality things wouldn't be how they are now. When you talk about the stock market, big corporations.. honestly I could care less as others do if it is not what is best for the citizens of this country.

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Originally Posted by Danny

The oil companies have a reason for not drilling, and we should make sure they are legal/ethical reasons. that would be a start.

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Oil companies arent drilling because they arent allowed to. They have been lobbying for years to open up the continental shelf, ANWR, and eastern Gulf, Cngress has been blocking their effors for more than a decade now.

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Originally Posted by 0p7!mu5

i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.

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AND with gas dropping in price American's will then say "hey... forget the Prius (or any other number of great economical cars) and lets pull the Hummer back out and drive to work in it cuz its cool..."

And so the wastefulness continues. Now of course I'd love to pay less per gallon, but this teaches American's in particular them wasteful bishes that u cant just use stuff without being aware of what ur doin to us all. I just dont understand why everyone MUST drive an SUV and not actually use it for its purpose, or a truck or anything other than a car; to go from point A to point B.

A car was built for that reason. If u got kids get a a station wagon (them Volvo V70's are fly to me personally) or a freakin van (cuz thats what its built for). But EVERYONE in a SUV to make u feel, what, special?

Since I drive a small car I can see this. I just dont understand how u can spend so much for no damn reason and it annoys me. Buy the car for what its built for not for how it freakin looks. I can even pick on the sports cars, but then thats offendin people on here and I'd technically be a hypocryte due to my motor swap.

Just sayin...

Was my other post deleted??

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Originally Posted by blaknoize

AND with gas dropping in price American's will then say "hey... forget the Prius (or any other number of great economical cars) and lets pull the Hummer back out and drive to work in it cuz its cool..."

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Bad example because ironically the Prius is more damaging to the environment than a hummer is.

http://www.impactlab.com/2007/03/14/...mental-damage/

i think the gas guzzler tax should be increased, and regulatory laws on speculation in the oil market should be passed. who cares if it doesn't regulate it for other countries? if anything, i can see that driving prices of imported goods up and increasing american manufacture as opposed to foreign outsourcing and will boost our economy that much more.

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Originally Posted by jesse4846

i think the gas guzzler tax should be increased, and regulatory laws on speculation in the oil market should be passed. who cares if it doesn't regulate it for other countries? if anything, i can see that driving prices of imported goods up and increasing american manufacture as opposed to foreign outsourcing and will boost our economy that much more.

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I say increase the gas guzzler tax and revise it to include trucks (but within an acceptable range of fuel efficiency for trucks). Then use this newly increased tax to improve public transportation (e.g. trains, hydrogen powered buses) - it will reduce the traffic in cities and significantly cut down on emissions/smog.

I do believe that there should be an exemption or maybe even a reduction on diesel vehicles as far as taxes go. As far as the tax goes for trucks, I think it should be taxed in according to it's GVWR and actual fuel economy. If it has a GVWR of 7000 and fuel economy of 22.5 average (According to the new CAFE standards coming up in the future for trucks) then it should have less taxes. I'm still tired of loosing a parking spot to someone who drives one of those big biitches all because they don't know how to park it.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080625/...gress_gasoline

I have an F-150, so i'm praying this goes through.

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Originally Posted by Verik

Bad example because ironically the Prius is more damaging to the environment than a hummer is.

http://www.impactlab.com/2007/03/14/...mental-damage/

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Thats why I added a disclaimer (...any number of other econmical cars...) It was an example because Americans, when squeezed, will actually downsize to "save" overall. I coulda said Civic, but I used a line from a newspaper on this subject.

So pick on the one item I use, like the media, when u know exactly what I meant.

But man... that website is lame in comparison. No one can even afford to drive a Hummer, if it were to last that long no 300,000 miles. Which is also why it costs "less" since they are comparing 100,000 to 300,000. That Hummer costs much more per mile or year or week to own, unlike the 2 power sourced Toyota.

I wonder who the speculators are. rockafella, jp morgan, etc control that game and are shoving oil pumps up our butts.

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Originally Posted by preferredduck

I wonder who the speculators are. rockafella, jp morgan, etc control that game and are shoving oil pumps up our butts.

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just about every majot trading house, plus about a million individuals are speculating in commodities.