Explain this.

[Sinfix_15]

On the anniversary of the day that "John 316" became the most searched topic on the internet which would create the NCAA's "Tebow rule" from preventing such a things from ever happening again, Tebow passed for....

316 yards
31.6 yards per catch (NFL playoff record)
31.06 time of possession.

The 80 yards passing needed to reach 316 was made on 1 pass, the longest TD pass in OT history. What are the odds the Broncos wouldnt have 1 yard rushing in OT?
The 1 play that put the time of possession at 31.06 was the fastest OT in NFL history. what are the odds of that happening?


I'd say the statistical probability of these events happening together fall somewhere between you winning the lottery and Jessica Alba breaking in your house to suck you off.

Anyone care to explain this?

[silversol]

i think you would break in to tebows place to suck him off if you got the chance to!

[Sinfix_15]

i think you would break in to tebows place to suck him off if you got the chance to!

seriously...... you've got to admit that stat line is bizarre.

[silversol]

I think your just looking into things to hard,,,

[BanginJimmy]

Anyone care to explain this?

God is telling you to set up camp in front of Tebow's house for the next 316 days. Go now before you are condemned to hell for 316 years.

[Vteckidd]

^^^^^^ LOL

Links to stats please, I don't believe it

[Sinfix_15]

^^^^^^ LOL

Links to stats please, I don't believe it

just do a google search.... its all over the place

[Sinfix_15]

double

[ISAtlanta300]

It's even on Wikipedia.....true story...

[quickdodge®]

just do a google search.... its all over the place

I did GOOGLE this....

And OH MY FUCKING GOD!!!!!!!!

I was surprised enough when I found out that this is the real deal!!

What put me over the top (not to mention going to make me delete all my "there is no God" statements in the RELIGION section) was one minute tidbit.

It took Google but .316 seconds to bring up the search results.

Hallelujah!!! Praise be!

Later, QD.

[Sinfix_15]

I did GOOGLE this....

And OH MY FUCKING GOD!!!!!!!!

I was surprised enough when I found out that this is the real deal!!

What put me over the top (not to mention going to make me delete all my "there is no God" statements in the RELIGION section) was one minute tidbit.

It took Google but .316 seconds to bring up the search results.

Hallelujah!!! Praise be!

Later, QD.

i cant tell if you're being sarcastic or not. but i really had to do a double take when i saw these stats.

[quickdodge®]

i cant tell if you're being sarcastic or not.

I was being sarcastic, lolol. I didn't Google anything. Just wanted to play it up some. Later, QD.

[Sinfix_15]

I was being sarcastic, lolol. I didn't Google anything. Just wanted to play it up some. Later, QD.

oh well...... i thought it was interesting, considering the statistical odds of it happening are probably 21395814959013245349182852385834909058234908828358 29015890125890238590281590289582901581209581239058 90218590285902185902185902819058123908359123085902 31835902385902383590825908129035821903582390185902 3185 to 1.

[carguy07]

On the anniversary of the day that "John 316" became the most searched topic on the internet which would create the NCAA's "Tebow rule" from preventing such a things from ever happening again, Tebow passed for....

316 yards
31.6 yards per catch (NFL playoff record)
31.06 time of possession.

Anyone care to explain this?

I'm going with experimental probability, not theoretical. Including the possibility that Tebow throws for 500 yards would skew the results.

The probability of him playing a game on the anniversary of National Championship game is pretty high. The first week of the NFL playoffs coincides with the NC game pretty often, so I would say 1 in 7 on that.

A fair normal distribution for his passing yards would be 200 with a standard deviation of 50. I'm not looking at a z-score table for an actual probability, but his 316 is definitely within the 3 standard deviations necessary to not be an outlier. Odds are it will happen again in his career. 1 in 100, and that's a high guess.

The 31.6 per completion is not something he controlled. It relates directly to his passing yard total and his lack of accuracy. He has averaged more per completion this season. Given that he passes for 316 yards (it's unfair not to assume this), 1 in 15 that he completes only 10 passes.

Time of possession in a playoff game is generally close, especially in the pass happy NFL of today. 31:06 isn't even the correct number to relate to (32 minutes is technically 31:60), and the NFL generally doesn't include time of possession in OT into official stats. Maybe in the playoffs.

Taking out the possession one, the odds are roughly 1 in 10,500. Maybe he should buy a lottery scratchoff ticket, but the big money lottery games and Jessica Alba are out of the question.

[Sinfix_15]

I'm going with experimental probability, not theoretical. Including the possibility that Tebow throws for 500 yards would skew the results.

The probability of him playing a game on the anniversary of National Championship game is pretty high. The first week of the NFL playoffs coincides with the NC game pretty often, so I would say 1 in 7 on that.

A fair normal distribution for his passing yards would be 200 with a standard deviation of 50. I'm not looking at a z-score table for an actual probability, but his 316 is definitely within the 3 standard deviations necessary to not be an outlier. Odds are it will happen again in his career. 1 in 100, and that's a high guess.

The 31.6 per completion is not something he controlled. It relates directly to his passing yard total and his lack of accuracy. He has averaged more per completion this season. Given that he passes for 316 yards (it's unfair not to assume this), 1 in 15 that he completes only 10 passes.

Time of possession in a playoff game is generally close, especially in the pass happy NFL of today. 31:06 isn't even the correct number to relate to (32 minutes is technically 31:60), and the NFL generally doesn't include time of possession in OT into official stats. Maybe in the playoffs.

Taking out the possession one, the odds are roughly 1 in 10,500. Maybe he should buy a lottery scratchoff ticket, but the big money lottery games and Jessica Alba are out of the question.

you realize that when you come up with the odds for multiple things, you dont avg out the odds of each one individually.

If 3 things all have a 10% chance of happening, that doesnt mean the odds are 10%. The odds of each individual thing happening in sequence with the other is highly unlikely.

Especially when you factor in that 3 NFL records were broke for these things to happen.

Also, it's not the anniversary of the national championship game that is significant, its the particular message chosen on that given day. "John 3:16". He changed his messages every game. Sure the national title game and NFL playoffs happen the same time every year, but when he decided to use that message is an unpredictable variable.

I'm not a mathematician, but its pretty easy to see that this happening is highly unlikely. Seeing as how Harvard already did a study on the probability of some other less amazing Tebow "occurrences" i'm sure they'll wrap their minds around this at some point and produce a number.


The overtime period began with Tebow needing 80 yards passing to reach the total of 316. What are the odds that the #1 rushing team in the NFL who had previously rushed on first down 20 out of 21 attempts to throw?

What are the odds said throw would go for 80 yards? (longest in NFL history)

What are the odds that the overtime period would last just long enough to set the clock @ 31.06? (NFL record for fastest overtime)

Also.... 31.6 yards per catch breaks the NFL record by almost double..... what are the odds of someone doubling an NFL record vs the #1 defense in the NFL?

[Sinfix_15]

going to throw out some other number play i stumbled upon looking for a way to figure out the odds of this.

Tebow won 6 games in a row, then lost 7th. (god created the world in 6 days and rested on the 7th)
Tebow lost 3 games in a row,(Peter denied Jesus 3 times before he was crucified)
In those 3 games, the Broncos lost by a total of 48. (48 divided by 3 is 16.)

Also.... the TV ratings for the game were 31.6 too.



I'm an Atheist, i do not believe in God and know that there is a scientific explanation for everything.......... still though..... this is a "neat" story.

or.... maybe this 2012 things is for real...... and Tebow is the angel riding in on the pale horse(Bronco) of the Apocalypse. Maybe Jesus is gonna come back right after the Broncos win the 2012 superbowl, just like the mayans predicted!... LOL

[carguy07]

you realize that when you come up with the odds for multiple things, you dont avg out the odds of each one individually.

If 3 things all have a 10% chance of happening, that doesnt mean the odds are 10%. The odds of each individual thing happening in sequence with the other is highly unlikely.

Also, it's not the anniversary of the national championship game that is significant, its the particular message chosen on that given day. "John 3:16". He changed his messages every game. Sure the national title game and NFL playoffs happen the same time every year, but when he decided to use that message is an unpredictable variable.

I'm not a mathematician, but its pretty easy to see that this happening is highly unlikely. Seeing as how Harvard already did a study on the probability of some other less amazing Tebow "occurrences" i'm sure they'll wrap their minds around this at some point and produce a number.


I'll answer this part right now. I am a mathematician, and have a degree to prove it. I multiplied each event together. The same way the odds of getting heads on two consecutive coin flips is 1/4 (1/2 times 1/2). If you think the average of 7, 15, and 100 =10,500, I want to see your high school diploma.

That anniversary happens every year, around the time of NFL playoff games. Tebow would pick a popular scripture for bigger games, which is why he picked John 3:16. The number could actually be lower, as these event dates are dependent on each other. You probably believe the probability of two people having the same birthday is 1/365, google "birthday probability problem" sometime when you're bored.

(sarcasm) I don't work at Harvard and don't have the free time to log all the stats and create a truly accurate number, but I will guarantee you my 1 in 10,500 guess is a lot closer than 21395814959013245349182852385834909058234908828358 29015890125890238590281590289582901581209581239058 90218590285902185902185902819058123908359123085902 31835902385902383590825908129035821903582390185902 3185 to 1 (/sarcasm).

[Sinfix_15]

Okay. He threw for 316 yards. Let's assume that the number of yards could be anywhere from 0 to 1000 yards. So that makes the odds of throwing 316 1 in 1000.

The average of 31.6 yards per play is just the same number as above divided by 10. So really you're saying he made 10 plays. Let's say that he could have made anywhere from 0 to 100 plays, so the odds of this number of plays is 1/100.

And the TV ratings, let's assume they could go anywhere from 0 to 100, with 3 significant figures. So the odds of the ratings being 31.6 are 1/1000.

So multiply those together:

1/1000 * 1/100 * 1/1000
= 1/100,000,000

1 in 100 million, clearly nothing interesting or out of the ordinary about that.

[03RCode]

This reminds me of that Jim Carrey movie "The Number 23"

If you dig hard enough you can make anything come out how you want it.

[carguy07]

Okay. He threw for 316 yards. Let's assume that the number of yards could be anywhere from 0 to 1000 yards. So that makes the odds of throwing 316 1 in 1000.

The average of 31.6 yards per play is just the same number as above divided by 10. So really you're saying he made 10 plays. Let's say that he could have made anywhere from 0 to 100 plays, so the odds of this number of plays is 1/100.

And the TV ratings, let's assume they could go anywhere from 0 to 100, with 3 significant figures. So the odds of the ratings being 31.6 are 1/1000.

So multiply those together:

1/1000 * 1/100 * 1/1000
= 1/100,000,000

1 in 100 million, clearly nothing interesting or out of the ordinary about that.

You are getting close, but you should know that numbers in sports are not random. Like I said in my first post, his numbers have a mean and standard deviation, so you should normalize them to get a more accurate answer. Tebow will never throw for 1000 yards in a game, so including that in your calculation is incorrect. He will also never complete 100 passes in a game, so that is incorrect also. If you read my initial post, I made some quick estimations for the correct ranges for both of these. TV ratings are completely pointless anyway, just learning how they are determined will make anyone with statistics experience cringe.


This reminds me of that Jim Carrey movie "The Number 23"

If you dig hard enough you can make anything come out how you want it.

This. If you want I can relate all these numbers to Philippians 4:13, another scripture Tebow put on his eyeblack while in college.

[Sinfix_15]

You are getting close, but you should know that numbers in sports are not random. Like I said in my first post, his numbers have a mean and standard deviation, so you should normalize them to get a more accurate answer. Tebow will never throw for 1000 yards in a game, so including that in your calculation is incorrect. He will also never complete 100 passes in a game, so that is incorrect also. If you read my initial post, I made some quick estimations for the correct ranges for both of these. TV ratings are completely pointless anyway, just learning how they are determined will make anyone with statistics experience cringe.



This. If you want I can relate all these numbers to Philippians 4:13, another scripture Tebow put on his eyeblack while in college.

if its worth your time, id be highly interested in you plugging another verse into this and making it work.

[carguy07]

if its worth your time, id be highly interested in you plugging another verse into this and making it work.

Matthew 3:16.

In all seriousness, give me some time and I'll see what I can do to give you a real answer.

[Sinfix_15]

Matthew 3:16.

In all seriousness, give me some time and I'll see what I can do to give you a real answer.

sounds good, not being sarcastic or a smart ass, i really am interested to see if you can apply something else to it.