Analysts say Gas could drop $2.00/gal..

[tony]

If the House Bill on Speculation goes through..

http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/06/20/2008-06-20T191724Z_01_N20463274_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CFTC-LEGISLATION.html


US House bill goes after energy market speculation
06.20.08, 3:17 PM ET


United States - By Jasmin Melvin
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Legislation introduced in the House of Representatives on Friday would crack down on over-the-counter crude oil trading and go after speculators suspected of pushing oil prices to record levels.

The Prevent Unfair Manipulation of Prices, or PUMP, act, would eliminate loopholes allowing energy traders to amass excessive profits while inflating the price of oil for consumers, by trading on foreign markets and entering into other deals that currently escape federal oversight.

The bill's main sponsor, Rep. Bart Stupak, Democratic chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, said excessive speculation was "killing our economy."

Speculation usually accounts for only $8 to $9 per barrel to the cost of crude, but in current markets, he said, speculation is adding about $65 to $70 a barrel -- almost half the price of oil.

"We don't mind people making money," Stupak said. "We're not saying end speculation. We're saying end the excessive speculation that continues to put a higher and higher floor (on oil prices)."

Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee said the law of supply and demand, which some have cited as causing the rise in oil prices, are not at work here. "These are the laws of what happens when you allow manipulation and excessive speculation, because you don't have a fair review of these markets," he said.

Under the bill, overseas trading of energy commodities, such as on the InterContinental Exchange, would be subject to the same rules as U.S.-regulated markets, if traders use U.S.-based computer terminals or the transaction has a delivery point on American soil.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees futures trading on U.S. exchanges, would also get authority to monitor bilateral trades and swaps that occur between two parties and are not negotiated on a regulated exchange.

"The CFTC has allowed 117 different exceptions for swaps," Stupak said. "When you allow 117 exceptions, you have part of the market that's basically doing what it wants with little or no oversight from the government."

Stupak said this allows traders to drive the price of oil to what is most beneficial for them. The PUMP bill would require reporting and recordkeeping for all such transactions, allowing the CFTC to monitor for fraud and manipulation.

The bill would also require the CFTC to set position limits on the number of energy contracts a trader could control "over all markets" and would no longer allow speculators to be exempt from position limits for hedging risks, unless they have "legitimate anticipated business needs."

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would retain the authority to prosecute market manipulation, and get the added authority to freeze the assets of companies it prosecutes.

Companies would no longer be able to liquidate and distribute their assets before a verdict to avoid monetary penalties.

The legislation has more than 50 co-sponsors, including some Republicans. Additionally, a coalition of consumer, labor and business organizations, representing mainly the airline industry, endorsed the PUMP bill. (Editing by Walter Bagley)

Copyright 2008 Reuters, Click for Restriction

[tony]

Edited.. felt like quoting myself was vain.

[ironchef]

If the airlines and auto makers both got their lobbyists on the case, I could see this passing with flying colors. $2/gallon would be a sight for sore eyes lol.

[Nissan Sean]

this is excactly what we need to happen. i glad to see some politicians doing there job! i hope it passes through, but i doubt it will b/c im sure many of these representatives have their hands in the oil $$$$$$, so they will try to veto this bill. lets cross our fingers and hope our politicians arent soo greedy they hurt the general popluation.

[Scotsman]

:bump::cheers::boobies::nautjerk::nautjerk::nautje rk::nautjerk::nautjerk::nautjerk::jerkit::jerkit:: jerkit::jerkit::jerkit::bigdance::dj:!!!!

[ironchef]

this is excactly what we need to happen. i glad to see some politicians doing there job! i hope it passes through, but i doubt it will b/c im sure many of these representatives have their hands in the oil $$$$$$, so they will try to veto this bill. lets cross our fingers and hope our politicians arent soo greedy they hurt the general popluation.The lobbyists will put money in their pocket, so don't worry about them.

[IndianStig]

:bump::cheers::boobies::nautjerk::nautjerk::nautje rk::nautjerk::nautjerk::nautjerk::jerkit::jerkit:: jerkit::jerkit::jerkit::bigdance::dj:!!!!
:bigdance: :stupid:

[BanginJimmy]

I've been paying attention to this bill for a while and I think its going to pass easily.

I dont think gas will immediately drop that much, but I do think it will make at least a $1 a gallon drop within a couple of weeks of the bill passing, then another, smaller drop in crude oil prices after it goes into effect. The real drop will happen in mid to late 2010 when the first rigs go online, even though it will be several years before the oil hits the market in quantity, having that drilling rig up and moving will send a message that the money train from the US is about to get alot slimmer.

[0p7!mu5]

i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.

[BanginJimmy]

i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.

In case you havnt noticed, no one really cares about alternative fuels now. Its only a talking point on the news.

Alternative fuels are on the horizon, but I seriously doubt we will see an economiclly viable alternative to oil for at least the next 2 decades.

[ash7]

I agree with this bill, however, being in the crude speculation market myself I have mixed feelings.

Everything that will be "fixed" by this bill (i.e. the gas price drop, which is only a band-aid to the symptoms of another problem) will only be counteracted by the Cap-In-Trade bill that will be proposed within the next few months.

-jonathan

[0p7!mu5]

funny how politics and lack of research on the general public's part kills that isnt it? I agree with ya but still it would be nice to find a way to not have to go through this again, because you know at some point and time we will.

[SPOOLIN]

3$ a gallon would be nice. anything but 4+. I hate going to races at 4$ a gallon.

[BanginJimmy]

Everything that will be "fixed" by this bill (i.e. the gas price drop, which is only a band-aid to the symptoms of another problem) will only be counteracted by the Cap-In-Trade bill that will be proposed within the next few months.

Any bill that even officially recognizes climate change should immediately be thrown out as nothing more than political propaganda. There is absolutely no proof of global warming.

[Verik]

Hah, what a joke. Outlawing the oil futures market. Did they forget that oil is a worldwide market? That will only drive the majority of oil trade overseas, making it out of control for the U.S.

Why the big focus solely on oil? What about grains? Have they not noticed the huge run up in corn/cotton/wheat? Why don't we just let the government own all of the oil fields and all of the farms in the United States. It worked so well for the Soviet Union in the late 20's and early 30's. *sarcasm*

[slostang]

I gurantee if and when gas drops, nothing else will go down.

[tony]

Hah, what a joke. Outlawing the oil futures market. Did they forget that oil is a worldwide market? That will only drive the majority of oil trade overseas, making it out of control for the U.S.

Why the big focus solely on oil? What about grains? Have they not noticed the huge run up in corn/cotton/wheat? Why don't we just let the government own all of the oil fields and all of the farms in the United States. It worked so well for the Soviet Union in the late 20's and early 30's. *sarcasm*

Better yet why not just do nothing and let gas prices continue to rise?

[BLK JDM]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[man]

Hah, what a joke. Outlawing the oil futures market. Did they forget that oil is a worldwide market? That will only drive the majority of oil trade overseas, making it out of control for the U.S.

Unlikely. The U.S. consumes 1/4 of all oil consumed per day. That would be an enormous loss to oil companies.

[DieselNuts]

I'll believe it when I see it.
AGREED

[Sammich]

i cant wait to see anything under $3.00 (i use to say if it hits $3/gal ill be walking...yet i'm still driving :wtf: ) lol

[03RCode]

i cant wait to see anything under $3.00 (i use to say if it hits $3/gal ill be walking...yet i'm still driving :wtf: ) lol


:lmfao: You aint the only one, never really thought about it till you said that though.

And I'm all for this if it works, but I'll have to agree with the I'll believe it when I see it.

[BanginJimmy]

Why the big focus solely on oil? What about grains? Have they not noticed the huge run up in corn/cotton/wheat? Why don't we just let the government own all of the oil fields and all of the farms in the United States. It worked so well for the Soviet Union in the late 20's and early 30's. *sarcasm*

They cant say anything about farm prodiced items because it was liberal legislation that started this mess. The whole ethanol from corn deal is driving up corn prices, which drive up feed prices, which drive up meat prices. Corn is now more profitable to grow than soy and wheat so more farmers are growing corn. This lowers the supply of soy and wheat which drives up prices on bread and everything made from soy and wheat.

The flooding in the heartland is horrible, but maybe some good will come out of it. I am hoping that the huge price increases we will see until next summer will force congress to dump any fuel from food projects.

[4dmin]

i would be highly surprised if something like this would even pass... politicians pockets would be hit too hard. i'm sure we will keep getting rapped

[Sport1.3]

this will never happen.

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w148/Minuswhale9/lincoln.gif

[Nerdsrock22]

this will never happen.

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w148/Minuswhale9/lincoln.gif

Don't be so sure about that. I'd expect this in 2009. Especially if Obama's taxes go through on the oil companies.

I'm torn about this bill. While I certainly would like to see gas prices go down, I'm terribly skeptical of any government intervention into private business affairs. But then again, I don't know that I would be complaining if I was paying 2 bucks a gallon. Money can easily change political ideals.

That being said, I seriously doubt it would go down that much. Govt could see the price decrease and then boost taxes....If they know there is money, they'll take it...

[Verik]

Unlikely. The U.S. consumes 1/4 of all oil consumed per day. That would be an enormous loss to oil companies.

Your not very bright with international financial trade are you? I didn't say that the US would stop consuming oil. However it will place the control of oil prices in that of the rest of the world if the US starts restricting speculative trade from inside the states. It is a worldwide market so congress can only limit the US's involvement in that market (which unfortunately is a horrible decision, as are most when the government decides to intervene in a free market) meaning that the people who are speculating the prices we pay for crude oil is going to be done by foreigners because we won't be legally able to ourselves.

And Tony, yeah this is capitalism. I'd much rather the government not touch or try and restrict free markets. Oil is a very inelastic good in our society and the markets are coming into realization of that fact. If you want a government that plays and ****s up free markets, head over to china and enjoy socialism.

[twinj]

When things are too good to be true, They usually are. Theres nothign wrong with hope I would love to see that $2.00 drop.

[81911SC]

Yea right.

[umairejaz]

I don't think prices will be droping anytime soon but i do beleive the price of crude oil is overvalued.

edit: yeah, I replied without reading, didn't get the chance at the moment lol.

[Danny]

Your not very bright with international financial trade are you? I didn't say that the US would stop consuming oil. However it will place the control of oil prices in that of the rest of the world if the US starts restricting speculative trade from inside the states. It is a worldwide market so congress can only limit the US's involvement in that market (which unfortunately is a horrible decision, as are most when the government decides to intervene in a free market) meaning that the people who are speculating the prices we pay for crude oil is going to be done by foreigners because we won't be legally able to ourselves.

And Tony, yeah this is capitalism. I'd much rather the government not touch or try and restrict free markets. Oil is a very inelastic good in our society and the markets are coming into realization of that fact. If you want a government that plays and ****s up free markets, head over to china and enjoy socialism.


Tony and others want socialism, but wont admit it. Banning speculation is a joke, like i mentioned in another thread: speculation is 100% of the price of any given publicly traded item.

Ok, say this bill gets the US market on oil to drop. So lets say the NYMEX is going to be at 70$ a barrel for crude, what makes any intelligent person think the dozen other exchanges in the world are going to be at 70 bucks a barrel. They wont, because they will still be openly traded instead of socialized like so many people in the US wants. Each exchange is normally within fractions of dollar to the same price, I dont see how socializing our market will convince every other market to drop with ours.

Socialist bills like this frighten me, and so do people that have no clue what market prices are based on. And reading a bill that says 60 bucks of the oil price is speculation makes me laugh in terror, partly due to the fact that politicians think they can get away with such BS, but mostly because there are people ignorant enough to believe them.

As much as i want 2$ a gallon gas, I do not want it at the expense of a free market (the little we have left).

[Verik]

^ repped. I love making new friends lol.

[tony]

Tony and others want socialism, but wont admit it. Banning speculation is a joke, like i mentioned in another thread: speculation is 100% of the price of any given publicly traded item.

Ok, say this bill gets the US market on oil to drop. So lets say the NYMEX is going to be at 70$ a barrel for crude, what makes any intelligent person think the dozen other exchanges in the world are going to be at 70 bucks a barrel. They wont, because they will still be openly traded instead of socialized like so many people in the US wants. Each exchange is normally within fractions of dollar to the same price, I dont see how socializing our market will convince every other market to drop with ours.

Socialist bills like this frighten me, and so do people that have no clue what market prices are based on. And reading a bill that says 60 bucks of the oil price is speculation makes me laugh in terror, partly due to the fact that politicians think they can get away with such BS, but mostly because there are people ignorant enough to believe them.

As much as i want 2$ a gallon gas, I do not want it at the expense of a free market (the little we have left).

:lmfao: Socialist??? Name me ONE market that is completely unregulated in the United States. I didn't say cap the gas prices.. thats socialism. I said set the market right, every industry has standards to which they have to operate and those standards are NOT self imposed. When speculation in the energy sector is out of control it needs to be stopped, I don't know specifics as some may but I do know something has to give.

I guess the "non socialist" side is.. **** the economy, the private sector needs to have absolute freedom even at the detriment of our very being.

[tony]

And Tony, yeah this is capitalism. I'd much rather the government not touch or try and restrict free markets. Oil is a very inelastic good in our society and the markets are coming into realization of that fact. If you want a government that plays and ****s up free markets, head over to china and enjoy socialism.

We borrow from them to pay for our war in Iraq and you're criticizing their form of government? :thinking: Not saying its the way of life but don't be quick to shoot down China's government because they have become a global economic superpower while the U.S is on a decline.

[Danny]

:lmfao: Socialist??? Name me ONE market that is completely unregulated in the United States. I didn't say cap the gas prices.. thats socialism. I said set the market right, every industry has standards to which they have to operate and those standards are NOT self imposed. When speculation in the energy sector is out of control it needs to be stopped, I don't know specifics as some may but I do know something has to give.

I guess the "non socialist" side is.. **** the economy, the private sector needs to have absolute freedom even at the detriment of our very being.


You and others keep tossing around the word speculation as it makes up only a part of the market price. Soon as you and others use that complete BS to back up a claim then i wont listen to you. because its crap.

You also say its "out of control". What does that mean, and how do you know it is? Every other market is aloud to run and crash, but the energy market is not aloud to do that?

Your standards are based around this allusion of speculation, similar to global warming. Come up with a REAL cause, then I will listen to your solution.

Its just funny that oil runs 100% in 2 years and you and everyone else start complaining about speculation. Yet you speculate every day of your life. Death to speculators, then we can all be poor but even, just like you want.

While your at it, all securities should not be aloud to fluctuate more than 30% from their IPO to the day they close because those dam speculators will under or over value everything! AND we should really do away with the whole stock market, futures, options, and everything else because everything is over or undervalued accord to you and like minded people. Why not just freeze the markets and let the govt control the price, is not that what you want? Or does it just "stop with oil".

As you say "somthing has to give", i could not agree more. Its just the whole "speculation" argument that drives me crazy, its the same people that yell "global warming!"

[blackshine007]

I would love for the price of petrol to fall. I would be quite happy if it was to be back at $2/gallon. But I believe that if it were to be like that again, things will have to change. I think we should have at least some sort of system like how most of the european countries have it. Higher taxes and and insurance on larger more fuel consuming vehicles. Doing that would keep our demand for fuel to be any higher than it is now. At least then most of the americans would not get back in the old mindset of having a big stupid SUV only for basic transportation, unless it's that important. America's love affair for trucks has got to end or at least come down. Maybe that will encourage the auto manufactors to build more fuel efficient and lighter trucks. Call it impossible but I can see at least higher tax on the bigger vehicles beneficial to us.

[ironchef]

You and others keep tossing around the word speculation as it makes up only a part of the market price. Soon as you and others use that complete BS to back up a claim then i wont listen to you. because its crap.

You also say its "out of control". What does that mean, and how do you know it is? Every other market is aloud to run and crash, but the energy market is not aloud to do that?

Your standards are based around this allusion of speculation, similar to global warming. Come up with a REAL cause, then I will listen to your solution.

Its just funny that oil runs 100% in 2 years and you and everyone else start complaining about speculation. Yet you speculate every day of your life. Death to speculators, then we can all be poor but even, just like you want.

While your at it, all securities should not be aloud to fluctuate more than 30% from their IPO to the day they close because those dam speculators will under or over value everything! AND we should really do away with the whole stock market, futures, options, and everything else because everything is over or undervalued accord to you and like minded people. Why not just freeze the markets and let the govt control the price, is not that what you want? Or does it just "stop with oil".

As you say "somthing has to give", i could not agree more. Its just the whole "speculation" argument that drives me crazy, its the same people that yell "global warming!"You bring up a good point, but then again....

Who do speculators in the stock market hurt or help besides the people who trade? Joe Schmoe who doesn't know a thing about stocks, so he wouldn't give two sh!ts if Google is over or undervalued.

However, speculators in the oil sector affect every single man, woman, and child. So even if you're not involved in the market its still having a negative effect on you and your family. You know me better than most here, so you know I'm all for trading and free market. But on the oil front, it should not be like that.

[Total_Blender]

Communism seems to be doing well for the Chinese. About 60% of goods in America come from China nowadays.:screwy:

As much as I hate speculators and oil companies, a rapid price drop is probably the worst thing that could happen. People will go right back to their old habits of wasting fuel with SUV's and bad driving habits. Research and interest regarding alternative energy will die out. Effective public transportation will continue to not exist.

If we are ever going to cut our dependance on fossil feuls (which are a non-renewable resource) we are going to have to be provided with an incentive to do the research and work necessary. We really should be trying to find a source of renewable energy now... before it's too late.

[ironchef]

Communism seems to be doing well for the Chinese. About 60% of goods in America come from China nowadays.:screwy:

As much as I hate speculators and oil companies, a rapid price drop is probably the worst thing that could happen. People will go right back to their old habits of wasting fuel with SUV's and bad driving habits. Research and interest regarding alternative energy will die out. Effective public transportation will continue to not exist.

If we are ever going to cut our dependance on fossil feuls (which are a non-renewable resource) we are going to have to be provided with an incentive to do the research and work necessary. We really should be trying to find a source of renewable energy now... before it's too late.Theres no actual proof that oil is a fossil fuel, and on top of that theres been viable proof that oil is potentially a renewable resource. So the whole issue of supply is completely moot.

[Danny]

You bring up a good point, but then again....

Who do speculators in the stock market hurt or help besides the people who trade? Joe Schmoe who doesn't know a thing about stocks, so he wouldn't give two sh!ts if Google is over or undervalued.

However, speculators in the oil sector affect every single man, woman, and child. So even if you're not involved in the market its still having a negative effect on you and your family. You know me better than most here, so you know I'm all for trading and free market. But on the oil front, it should not be like that.

So in other words, drop free market on the commodities that absorb a large percentage of our spending money?

So say you socialize the oil market somehow (even though its globally regulated and traded), then what? Somehow its magically 50 bucks a barrel now, success right? Now imagine years down the road, everyone is spending less on oil. Now everyone realizes that water is too expensive, I mean ****.. they pull it out the ground just like oil... its should be almost free! Tonys big govt comes in and regulates that too. Yahhh.. everyone is happy for a few years untill we realize: "dam our cell phones are still expensive, its wayyy over valued". Tonys big govt steps in again, and BAM *poof*: unlimited minutes for 25$ a month, yeee hawwww... We are in business now. Couple years later, everyone realizes that food will not stop increasing in price, tonys govt steps in a caps that too. Mean while we forgot that Joe Schmoe lost his job at the AT&T because the govt cut his profits and no longer had a position for him. Joe Scmoe 2 lost his job at the farm, hist wifes salary was cut by 30% because her companys profit was cut also. Now they only spend 50 bucks instead of 100 a week at the grocery, so Mr. Krogers lays off 50% of his employees and the cycle starts over again.

So now we have the natural cycle of production/purchasing with the added in cycle of govt induced pricing/purchasing. Sounds worse to me.

Letting the govt have a foot in the door on regulating one thing will let them regulate everything else, just takes time.

I think there is some solutions elsewhere. maybe some investigations trying to figure out if there is collusion between auto manf. and oil companies, etc. Socialism should be the last resort.

Now if we are talking regulating the market so that futures traders stop any currently illegal practices allowing them to have a larger purchasing power than they legally are aloud (trading accounts offshore for example). Then thats a completely different topic.

[tony]

You and others keep tossing around the word speculation as it makes up only a part of the market price. Soon as you and others use that complete BS to back up a claim then i wont listen to you. because its crap.

You also say its "out of control". What does that mean, and how do you know it is? Every other market is aloud to run and crash, but the energy market is not aloud to do that?

Your standards are based around this allusion of speculation, similar to global warming. Come up with a REAL cause, then I will listen to your solution.

Its just funny that oil runs 100% in 2 years and you and everyone else start complaining about speculation. Yet you speculate every day of your life. Death to speculators, then we can all be poor but even, just like you want.

While your at it, all securities should not be aloud to fluctuate more than 30% from their IPO to the day they close because those dam speculators will under or over value everything! AND we should really do away with the whole stock market, futures, options, and everything else because everything is over or undervalued accord to you and like minded people. Why not just freeze the markets and let the govt control the price, is not that what you want? Or does it just "stop with oil".

As you say "somthing has to give", i could not agree more. Its just the whole "speculation" argument that drives me crazy, its the same people that yell "global warming!"

When the price of a barrel of oil jumps on the news that Israel may attack Iran please tell me what that is?

Lets define speculation: engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, esp. trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.

There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that a barrel of oil jumps when Israel implies that they may have to go to Iran unless the price is based on some kind of speculative action because otherwise.. the two are irrelevant until that attack effects the supply of oil. THAT IS OUT OF CONTROL.

Free trade is all well and good, but like I said no market operates without some kind of regulation otherwise you create a strong black market that garners sizeable control. Capitalism works with rules of trade being set forth. Our laws are based off of the constitution.. by your rationale the Constitution is useless because it restricts citizens from doing whatever they want.

[tony]

As much as I hate speculators and oil companies, a rapid price drop is probably the worst thing that could happen. People will go right back to their old habits of wasting fuel with SUV's and bad driving habits. Research and interest regarding alternative energy will die out. Effective public transportation will continue to not exist.

.

That is like saying don't do research on a cure for AIDS since the virus forces individuals to be more sexually responsible. Trust me.. people realize there is a crisis even if the price of oil drops.

[Danny]

Theres no actual proof that oil is a fossil fuel, and on top of that theres been viable proof that oil is potentially a renewable resource. So the whole issue of supply is completely moot.


supply is right there with speculation and global warming, like a said. A complete joke. We are sitting on an estimated 3 trillion barrel reserve in the Rockys. Not to mention all the other reserves we can legally/potentially drill. The oil companies have a reason for not drilling, and we should make sure they are legal/ethical reasons. that would be a start.

[ironchef]

So in other words, drop free market on the commodities that absorb a large percentage of our spending money?

So say you socialize the oil market somehow (even though its globally regulated and traded), then what? Somehow its magically 50 bucks a barrel now, success right? Now imagine years down the road, everyone is spending less on oil. Now everyone realizes that water is too expensive, I mean ****.. they pull it out the ground just like oil... its should be almost free! Tonys big govt comes in and regulates that too. Yahhh.. everyone is happy for a few years untill we realize: "dam our cell phones are still expensive, its wayyy over valued". Tonys big govt steps in again, and BAM *poof*: unlimited minutes for 25$ a month, yeee hawwww... We are in business now. Couple years later, everyone realizes that food will not stop increasing in price, tonys govt steps in a caps that too. Mean while we forgot that Joe Schmoe lost his job at the AT&T because the govt cut his profits and no longer had a position for him. Joe Scmoe 2 lost his job at the farm, hist wifes salary was cut by 30% because her companys profit was cut also. Now they only spend 50 bucks instead of 100 a week at the grocery, so Mr. Krogers lays off 50% of his employees and the cycle starts over again.

So now we have the natural cycle of production/purchasing with the added in cycle of govt induced pricing/purchasing. Sounds worse to me.

Letting the govt have a foot in the door on regulating one thing will let them regulate everything else, just takes time.

I think there is some solutions elsewhere. maybe some investigations trying to figure out if there is collusion between auto manf. and oil companies, etc. Socialism should be the last resort.

Now if we are talking regulating the market so that futures traders stop any currently illegal practices allowing them to have a larger purchasing power than they legally are aloud (trading accounts offshore for example). Then thats a completely different topic.Like I said I agree with you, but come on you know whats going on in Oil is bs. I liken it to the manipulation we saw in the pennies when we did it, and how ****ing lame it was.

[Danny]

Lets define speculation: engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, esp. trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.


Tony seriously, I know this is the third time i have typed this to you, so here it is ONE MORE TIME.

SPECULATION is NOT a fraction of the current price, it is 100% of the current price of all freely traded goods.

I dont know how else to say that. So when you say there is "too much" speculation to "over valued due to speculators" you are just being a fool and stating the obvious. My arguement is not that speculation doesnt exist, its that it makes up only a fraction of the price and that it is "out of control".



There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that a barrel of oil jumps when Israel implies that they may have to go to Iran unless the price is based on some kind of speculative action because otherwise.. the two are irrelevant until that attack effects the supply of oil. THAT IS OUT OF CONTROL.

once again showing that you have no clue. I will assume you have never traded a day in your life, and if you did it was unsuccessful or lucky.

YES, it is possible. Soon as you learn the economy and world markets run on ONE thing and one thing ONLY is the sooner you will understand my point: the world economy and markets run on one thing: RUMORS and SPECULATION. Most would say they are the same thing, I agree.

Ironchef trades, and will agree. As we have both spent countless hours making and loosing tons of money on rumors and speculation, its just how it works. There is nothing else to do but speculate on rumors or speculate on facts. You have to choose one or the other, the world is not traded on logic, unfortunately.

[Danny]

Like I said I agree with you, but come on you know whats going on in Oil is bs. I liken it to the manipulation we saw in the pennies when we did it, and how ****ing lame it was.


Dude we both know manipulation and shakes are just part of that game, and we kicked thier asses on occasion. BUT manipulation in that sense is illegal, cause its essentiall collusion (each MM works with the other MMs to raise or lower the price).

This thread was not started about manipulation, it was in reference to speculation. Swing over to the collusion/manipulation by the MMs (OIl Companies and Opec in this case) and i will jump on board with you. see what im trying to get at? One is the traders fault and the other is the MMs fault. My figer is pointed at the MM, not the trader.

[tony]

So say you socialize the oil market somehow (even though its globally regulated and traded), then what? Somehow its magically 50 bucks a barrel now, success right? Now imagine years down the road, everyone is spending less on oil. Now everyone realizes that water is too expensive, I mean ****.. they pull it out the ground just like oil... its should be almost free! Tonys big govt comes in and regulates that too. Yahhh.. everyone is happy for a few years untill we realize: "dam our cell phones are still expensive, its wayyy over valued". Tonys big govt steps in again, and BAM *poof*: unlimited minutes for 25$ a month, yeee hawwww... We are in business now. Couple years later, everyone realizes that food will not stop increasing in price, tonys govt steps in a caps that too. Mean while we forgot that Joe Schmoe lost his job at the AT&T because the govt cut his profits and no longer had a position for him. Joe Scmoe 2 lost his job at the farm, hist wifes salary was cut by 30% because her companys profit was cut also. Now they only spend 50 bucks instead of 100 a week at the grocery, so Mr. Krogers lays off 50% of his employees and the cycle starts over again.

.

Okay at this point I have to wonder.. do you pull this stuff out of your ass? Better yet do you even read my responses? Regulation is much different than control.

Lets simplify this for you.. two sentences, the only difference between them is Regulate and Control.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and control the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and regulate the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

People like you had your turn and within the span of a decade we have seen a stock market crash, housing market crash and now inflated energy prices while the Dollar continues to tank.. when companies like Enron and Countrywide operate with little regulation we see what happens.. the will of the people come second to those profits.

Funny how a lot of you want to regulate what goes on Iraq so badly but noo.. don't touch the policies here in America, we're too good for that.

[tony]

YES, it is possible. Soon as you learn the economy and world markets run on ONE thing and one thing ONLY is the sooner you will understand my point: the world economy and markets run on one thing: RUMORS and SPECULATION. Most would say they are the same thing, I agree.

.

You support drilling for more oil correct?

[Danny]

Okay at this point I have to wonder.. do you pull this stuff out of your ass? Better yet do you even read my responses? Regulation is much different than control.

Lets simplify this for you.. two sentences, the only difference between them is Regulate and Control.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and control the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

When markets are broken, it is necessary for the government to step in and regulate the market and create an environment beneficial to its citizens.

People like you had your turn and within the span of a decade we have seen a stock market crash, housing market crash and now inflated energy prices while the Dollar continues to tank.. when companies like Enron and Countrywide operate with little regulation we see what happens.. the will of the people come second to those profits.

Funny how a lot of you want to regulate what goes on Iraq so badly but noo.. don't touch the policies here in America, we're too good for that.

Regulation is fine, and necessary. You are just for regulating what you seem to think speculation is, and i am for regulating things like collusion (something i am not 100% sure is the problem, but worth investigating.)

[ironchef]

Ok with that in mind, do you mind the regulation that companies are subjected too when they finally move out of the pinks, otcbbs to the nasdaqs and nyses? Once they're on the Nasdaq they have to be way more accountable, and I guess thats how I see this bill, that it will make the "companies (oil, opec, cars, whatever)" more accountable.

And then on the same front, why would the car manufacturers want to collude with the oil companies on the price of oil? Car companies make bigger profit margins off of those gigantic SUVs, not ****ty little econoboxes that get 30mpg. So they're all losing profits because of the oil prices being where they are, which is definitely not what they want.

[Danny]

You support drilling for more oil correct?

Of course. But american oil companies have been given the green light to drill and pump. yet that have not, i want to know why exactly.

[ironchef]

BTW, lets get back into trading next summer, I miss it :(. Also lets do FOREX :D.

[Danny]

Ok with that in mind, do you mind the regulation that companies are subjected too when they finally move out of the pinks, otcbbs to the nasdaqs and nyses? Once they're on the Nasdaq they have to be way more accountable, and I guess thats how I see this bill, that it will make the "companies (oil, opec, cars, whatever)" more accountable.

And then on the same front, why would the car manufacturers want to collude with the oil companies on the price of oil? Car companies make bigger profit margins off of those gigantic SUVs, not ****ty little econoboxes that get 30mpg. So they're all losing profits because of the oil prices being where they are, which is definitely not what they want.


Im am 100% for accountability. Im simply try to get at that once a bil uses this BS as reason to why oil is expensive. It looses respect from me:




"Speculation usually accounts for only $8 to $9 per barrel to the cost of crude, but in current markets, he said, speculation is adding about $65 to $70 a barrel -- almost half the price of oil.

"We don't mind people making money," Stupak said. "We're not saying end speculation. We're saying end the excessive speculation that continues to put a higher and higher floor (on oil prices)."


Why would cars collude with oil? Not sure that they do. But the fact that GM scrapped all thier electric cars and sold the patent for the battery's to exxon is kinda odd. yea could most likey blame that on free market, but it still caught my eye none the less. And with current technology GMs hybrids are still doing like 25mpg or some crap. Just seems like fuel efficiency is growing like a turd compared to every other major industry. Enough so that its worth an investigation to insure everyone is playing kindly.

[Danny]

BTW, lets get back into trading next summer, I miss it :(. Also lets do FOREX :D.


im all for it. Think about to unsubscribe to this thread. IM me somtime

in summary:

- im for regulation, just not regulation of free trade/free pricing
- speculation is 100% of the price, not 60$ like that bill says

[tony]

Of course. But american oil companies have been given the green light to drill and pump. yet that have not, i want to know why exactly.

You support drilling for more oil but I don't understand how the economy works?

Better yet I had to go back and look in the very thread YOU started cause one minute I get confirmation of how it works then the next I don't. Taken from YOUR thread and the two posts were consecutive.




The way the oil industry is set up HAS to be a violation of Antitrust laws here in America. I do not think the oil companies need to be punished directly but I do think the government needs to take a look at how everything is structured. Section 1 of the Sherman Act states:

"Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal. Every person who shall make any contract or engage in any combination or conspiracy hereby declared to be illegal shall be deemed guilty of a felony, and, on conviction thereof, shall be punished by fine...."

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 countries who controls 35% of the worlds oil and those countries come together.. agree on a set amount of production therefor fixing gas prices, a complete violation.

I am for a government that steps in and says speculation on the price of oil is not in the best interest of the people and has become out of control. The government is there to step in to an unfair market and set things straight without too much of a strong arm. The government could not put a cap on gas prices, that would be disastrous but putting forth the infrastructure for Biodiesel (40mpg and produced from waste) Cellulosic Ethanol (does not use corn) Hydrogen.. whatever, viable competition can be made.




Thats how the market works, it sucks for us somtimes, but thats just how the game is played. So you want to socialize the oil/energy market to get rid of what you call "speculation". Why not just socialize every market, because I hate to break it to you speculation is NOT a fraction of the price of any given commodity, it is 100% of the price. Futures are traded (and every other single market on the planet) on speculation. Your life and capital runs on speculation. So yea, there are lots of people that buy into the "there is a 50% speculation surcharge on oil right now" garbage spilling out of some politicians /news channels mouths; but that does not make it the least bit true. The next time you talk to a futures/stock/ any type of finical person that is worth a cent will tell you that speculation is 100% of the market price.

.

You said reference a financial person, no one better than Warren Buffet;


On a commodities bubble
Buffett: "I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.

Once a price history develops, and people hear that their neighbor made a lot of money on something, that impulse takes over, and we're seeing that in commodities and housing...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."


I will concede his point on the market taking care of itself but this bubble is literally squeezing the life out of American citizens and at some point as I said before.. something has to give.

[tony]

Furthermore, even being an investor myself on a much smaller scale than most.. I still hold what it best for the people higher than what is best for my investments. If more individuals had that mentality things wouldn't be how they are now. When you talk about the stock market, big corporations.. honestly I could care less as others do if it is not what is best for the citizens of this country.

[BanginJimmy]

The oil companies have a reason for not drilling, and we should make sure they are legal/ethical reasons. that would be a start.

Oil companies arent drilling because they arent allowed to. They have been lobbying for years to open up the continental shelf, ANWR, and eastern Gulf, Cngress has been blocking their effors for more than a decade now.

[blaknoize]

i hope this passes but the downside is once things go back to 2 bucks a gallon we all know that any hope of alternative fuels are goin to be short or severly put on a back burner at best.

AND with gas dropping in price American's will then say "hey... forget the Prius (or any other number of great economical cars) and lets pull the Hummer back out and drive to work in it cuz its cool..."

And so the wastefulness continues. Now of course I'd love to pay less per gallon, but this teaches American's in particular them wasteful bishes that u cant just use stuff without being aware of what ur doin to us all. I just dont understand why everyone MUST drive an SUV and not actually use it for its purpose, or a truck or anything other than a car; to go from point A to point B.

A car was built for that reason. If u got kids get a a station wagon (them Volvo V70's are fly to me personally) or a freakin van (cuz thats what its built for). But EVERYONE in a SUV to make u feel, what, special?

Since I drive a small car I can see this. I just dont understand how u can spend so much for no damn reason and it annoys me. Buy the car for what its built for not for how it freakin looks. I can even pick on the sports cars, but then thats offendin people on here and I'd technically be a hypocryte due to my motor swap.

Just sayin...

[blaknoize]

Was my other post deleted??

[Verik]

AND with gas dropping in price American's will then say "hey... forget the Prius (or any other number of great economical cars) and lets pull the Hummer back out and drive to work in it cuz its cool..."

Bad example because ironically the Prius is more damaging to the environment than a hummer is.

http://www.impactlab.com/2007/03/14/prius-outdoes-hummer-in-environmental-damage/

[Thighs]

i think the gas guzzler tax should be increased, and regulatory laws on speculation in the oil market should be passed. who cares if it doesn't regulate it for other countries? if anything, i can see that driving prices of imported goods up and increasing american manufacture as opposed to foreign outsourcing and will boost our economy that much more.

[Jecht]

i think the gas guzzler tax should be increased, and regulatory laws on speculation in the oil market should be passed. who cares if it doesn't regulate it for other countries? if anything, i can see that driving prices of imported goods up and increasing american manufacture as opposed to foreign outsourcing and will boost our economy that much more.

I say increase the gas guzzler tax and revise it to include trucks (but within an acceptable range of fuel efficiency for trucks). Then use this newly increased tax to improve public transportation (e.g. trains, hydrogen powered buses) - it will reduce the traffic in cities and significantly cut down on emissions/smog.

[blackshine007]

I do believe that there should be an exemption or maybe even a reduction on diesel vehicles as far as taxes go. As far as the tax goes for trucks, I think it should be taxed in according to it's GVWR and actual fuel economy. If it has a GVWR of 7000 and fuel economy of 22.5 average (According to the new CAFE standards coming up in the future for trucks) then it should have less taxes. I'm still tired of loosing a parking spot to someone who drives one of those big biitches all because they don't know how to park it.

[lanier]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080625/ap_on_go_co/congress_gasoline

[Lucky DAWG]

I have an F-150, so i'm praying this goes through.

[blaknoize]

Bad example because ironically the Prius is more damaging to the environment than a hummer is.

http://www.impactlab.com/2007/03/14/prius-outdoes-hummer-in-environmental-damage/

Thats why I added a disclaimer (...any number of other econmical cars...) It was an example because Americans, when squeezed, will actually downsize to "save" overall. I coulda said Civic, but I used a line from a newspaper on this subject.

So pick on the one item I use, like the media, when u know exactly what I meant.

[blaknoize]

But man... that website is lame in comparison. No one can even afford to drive a Hummer, if it were to last that long no 300,000 miles. Which is also why it costs "less" since they are comparing 100,000 to 300,000. That Hummer costs much more per mile or year or week to own, unlike the 2 power sourced Toyota.

[preferredduck]

I wonder who the speculators are. rockafella, jp morgan, etc control that game and are shoving oil pumps up our butts.

[BanginJimmy]

I wonder who the speculators are. rockafella, jp morgan, etc control that game and are shoving oil pumps up our butts.


just about every majot trading house, plus about a million individuals are speculating in commodities.