Million Dollar Question

[Vteckidd]

There are 3 doors.

A B C

One of them has a million dollars.

Let us assume you choose door A (without opening it yet) as the door with a million dollars.

After your selection, I inform you that the million dollars is NOT behind door B (and I open it to show you that it indeed is not there).

The question and puzzle is, if I were to give you the choice to switch to door C, would you? And if so, why? If you would not, why? Or does it not matter?

[HalfBaked]

No, I'd stick with my 1st choice. It was my gut instinct, still going to be afterwards.

[Echonova]

No, because if you're giving me the option to switch... I picked the right door.

[thinkfast®]

I WOULD PISTOL WHIP UR ASS AND OPEN "DOOR A" WHILE MY HOMEY JUMPS ON STAGE AND "CHECKS OUT" "DOOR C" PRIZES

[Hulud]

what matt and echo said

[man]

Switch

[SL65AMG]

no because you just increased my chances of being right by 17%.....

[Whiteboy™]

i'd stick with my first choice.

[man]

no because you just increased my chances of being right by 17%.....

You sure?

[Vteckidd]

No, because if you're giving me the option to switch... I picked the right door.
Not true

If i told you B was not correct, then you have the choice of A and C

I never said that A was correct, it could still be wrong.

The question is, are you better off SWITCHING probability wise

[Vteckidd]

no because you just increased my chances of being right by 17%.....
nope i decreased your chances

[man]

nope i decreased your chances

Not true, the probability he chose correctly remains at 33%

[yudalicious]

Switch. Draw out ALL the possibilities, and it becomes clear.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Savant

[Vteckidd]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

[man]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

2/3 chance you will win with the switch

[SL65AMG]

nope i decreased your chances



????


3 doors- 33% chance of picking the right door.

I pick door A -33% right 66% wrong.

you tell me that Door B is not the correct door and thus knocks off one of the options. my chances of being right is now 50%..... 50% wrong


HOW is that decreasing my chances of being right?

[Mr_Mischif]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

bevause 2/3 times you will win a goat w/ your first choice, and if he reveals the door w/ the other goat, the door that he did not reveal must be the one w/ the car. Thus by switching you win a car 2/3 times, so it therefore makes the most sense to switch.

[Magnus213]

There is a 2/3 chance of success if you switch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

[Leadfoot_mf]

i know i am right because i can smell the money so i stick with where i smell it which happens in this case to be behind door a so give me my ****ing money.

[§treet_§peed]

what the **** is this ****? SCHOOL?

[man]

what the **** is this ****? SCHOOL?
:screwy:

[§treet_§peed]

PHUC JOOO SUN!!!

[man]

PHUC JOOO SUN!!!

JEW DONT WUNT NUN!!!!

[§treet_§peed]

SHEET SUN!!! I KEEEEEE UUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!

[Schugg]

There are 3 doors.

A B C

One of them has a million dollars.

Let us assume you choose door A (without opening it yet) as the door with a million dollars.

After your selection, I inform you that the million dollars is NOT behind door B (and I open it to show you that it indeed is not there).

The question and puzzle is, if I were to give you the choice to switch to door C, would you? And if so, why? If you would not, why? Or does it not matter?


dont know if anyone else said this cause i didnt check

yes because in the beginning you have a 33% chance of getting it right, when you show me the door its not behind that automatically gives you a 66% chance of being correct if you switch, because the original door is still somewhat still in the 33% chance of being right since you chose it before you were showed which door it wasnt behind.

[xlilvi3tx]

u know what? i just figured that sh!t out when i was tryin to ask how the fu*k is that sh!t still 1/3. hahah good trick of the mind.

[Clegger]

There is a 2/3 chance of success if you switch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

I agree with this satement... but only if the host does not know of the monty hall theory...

if he does know then this is irrelevent.. 50/50

[Jimmy B]

gut instinct,.. its still a 50/50% no matter what some guy wrote on wikipedia...

[Echonova]

Here's the thing, with the guy giving the money away. The point is for me to lose, therefore he keeps the money. Now I've picked A, he shows me B is empty and offer to let me switch doors to C . That tells me I'm 100% right because if I have picked the wrong door why offer it up? However by offering the third option it gives the guy giving the money away a 50/50 shot at keeping the money. Increasing HIS chances, you should never switch. Unless it was established before the game started that one wrong door would be revealed, then I would switch.

[SL65AMG]

dont know if anyone else said this cause i didnt check

yes because in the beginning you have a 33% chance of getting it right, when you show me the door its not behind that automatically gives you a 66% chance of being correct if you switch, because the original door is still somewhat still in the 33% chance of being right since you chose it before you were showed which door it wasnt behind. that not how this works guys. read my last post. ^^^^

you do not have a higher chance of being right if you switch from A to C just because B was not the right door. your chances are then split between two doors, your chance of being right for door A is not 50% and the chance of being wrong is now 50%.

just because someone on wikipedia says your chances are greater does not mean its true. wikipedia is NOT a good source from information because any ******* with a keyboard can write about whatever it is that they want.

[xlilvi3tx]

Here's the thing, with the guy giving the money away. The point is for me to lose, therefore he keeps the money. Now I've picked A, he shows me B is empty and offer to let me switch doors to C . That tells me I'm 100% right because if I have picked the wrong door why offer it up? However by offering the third option it gives the guy giving the money away a 50/50 shot at keeping the money. Increasing HIS chances, you should never switch. Unless it was established before the game started that one wrong door would be revealed, then I would switch.

lol the thing is, he still shows u the door with nothing regardless of u picking the door with the money or not. The reason why to switch it because u are more than likely to first pick a door with nothing then the door with money since its 2/3 chance. And once u do, he offers to switch. Switching really would be the best choice because, at the beginning, u have a higher chance of winning nothing since its 2/3.

Let say u pick the 1st door with nothing, he opens door 2 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 2 with nothing, he reveals door 1 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 3 with the money, he shows u either door 1 or 2, and if u make the switch, u are goin to lose.

Since switching has a 1/3 chance to lose, it is your best bet to switch than to stay with the same door. Staying with the same door gives you a (edited) 1/3 chance win. :bannana: so did i win?

[xlilvi3tx]

the answer is you should always switch, that is the highest prop of winning

can anyone tell me why

^^^ i hope thats the best way to put it. and these things actually kill time making u think hard. anymore weird riddle/problems mr kidd? sh!ts fun lol :goodjob:

[SL65AMG]

lol the thing is, he still shows u the door with nothing regardless of u picking the door with the money or not. The reason why to switch it because u are more than likely to first pick a door with nothing then the door with money since its 2/3 chance. And once u do, he offers to switch. Switching really would be the best choice because, at the beginning, u have a higher chance of winning nothing since its 2/3.

Let say u pick the 1st door with nothing, he opens door 2 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 2 with nothing, he reveals door 1 with nothing, u make the switch and u win.

Now lets say u pick door 3 with the money, he shows u either door 1 or 2, and if u make the switch, u are goin to lose.

Since switching has a 1/3 chance to lose, it is your best bet to switch than to stay with the same door. Staying with the same door gives you a 50/50 chance. :bannana: so did i win?


you picked 3 of the possible scenarios that prove your point. the real possibility or being right or wrong is 50%/50%.


i dont feel like trying to figure out all the possible scenarios but theres a hell of a lot more than 3

[Vteckidd]

that not how this works guys. read my last post. ^^^^

you do not have a higher chance of being right if you switch from A to C just because B was not the right door. your chances are then split between two doors, your chance of being right for door A is not 50% and the chance of being wrong is now 50%.

just because someone on wikipedia says your chances are greater does not mean its true. wikipedia is NOT a good source from information because any ******* with a keyboard can write about whatever it is that they want.
your still wrong.

THe paradox is that the game show host will ALWAYS show you an empty door an take it away.

even if you picked the right door, he still has 2 "goat" doors to pick from, if you picked a "goat" door in the beginning he still has 1 "goat" door to show you an take away.

Now the answer is :
In the beginning , your original choice of picking the CORRECT DOOR is 33% (1 out of 3). The odds of you picking the WRONG door are 66%.

THe odds of you choosing an inccorect door in the BEGINNING are vastly greater than you picking the RIGHT door.

66% of the time, you will choose the wrong door, monty hall will show you the OTHER wrong door, and therefore leaving HIM with the correct door that you HAVE TO SWITCH TO.

the odds never change, its ALWAYS 33%, 66%. Even when he removes a door, your odds at that point ARE STILL %66you have the wrong door, and 33% that he has the right door.

IT NEVER CHANGES.

Even the 100 door question. Take 100 doors, pick 1, Monty removes 98 of them. Should you switch?

YES, your odds of picking the right door in the beginning are 1:100. The odds of him having the right door are vastly better (since he knows).
But your odds never got better, its still 1:100 you picked the right door, and 98% sure he picked the right door.

If you dont believe me, try it at home. Get 3 business cards and play with a friend or yourself. Mark one as the "CASH/CAR" door. shuffle them up and draw. pick one, dont look at it, remove a "Goat" door and see if you should switch.

if you do the experiment enough times, switching will prevail.

this makes my head hurt LOL.

[1000cckiller]

I WOULD PISTOL WHIP UR ASS AND OPEN "DOOR A" WHILE MY HOMEY JUMPS ON STAGE AND "CHECKS OUT" "DOOR C" PRIZESI whip your ass and me and ricky take the stash.

[Magnus213]

Wikipedia isn't the world's most credible source, but the Monty Hall problem is famous. If you actually read the article it would make sense, they spell out the three possible scenarios and show you that two provide success.

If you read Parade magazine, a few years ago Marilyn vos Savant (highest IQ in the world) analyzed this problem and came to the same solution. 2/3 times you win if you switch doors.

[xlilvi3tx]

you picked 3 of the possible scenarios that prove your point. the real possibility or being right or wrong is 50%/50%.


i dont feel like trying to figure out all the possible scenarios but theres a hell of a lot more than 3

there is more scenarios, im just proving that picking to switch is the best choice since it had the highest proportion of winning. ok let say u stayin with that same door, u have 1/3 chance of winning.

pick door 1 within nothin, he reveals door 2 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 2 with nothing, reveal door 1 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 3 with money, reveals either door 1 or 2, stay, get the money.

those are the only choices u can get man... lol

[Jimmy B]

its still 50/50 after the one door is taken away..

the bottom line, you eather keep your door you picked, or switch.. 2 doors left, you have a 50/50 chance.. monty hall is an idiot obvously

[AnthonyF]

no, b/c you spell kid with 2 d's.


and wouldnt the million dollar question be the first one "Which do do you choose"

[SL65AMG]

there is more scenarios, im just proving that picking to switch is the best choice since it had the highest proportion of winning. ok let say u stayin with that same door, u have 1/3 chance of winning.

pick door 1 within nothin, he reveals door 2 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 2 with nothing, reveal door 1 with nothing, stay, get nothing

pick door 3 with money, reveals either door 1 or 2, stay, get the money.

those are the only choices u can get man... lol


what if the money is not in door 3/c ? what if it was in a?

[xlilvi3tx]

what if the money is not in door 3/c ? what if it was in a?

same thing or is it? lol jk, just move all that sh!t around haha

[man]

its still 50/50 after the one door is taken away..

the bottom line, you eather keep your door you picked, or switch.. 2 doors left, you have a 50/50 chance.. monty hall is an idiot obvously

:umno:

[Magnus213]

:umno:
Seriously. The answer is spelled out and people are still refusing to accept it.

[Psycho]

its still 50/50 after the one door is taken away..

the bottom line, you eather keep your door you picked, or switch.. 2 doors left, you have a 50/50 chance.. monty hall is an idiot obvously
You said it before I could:(

[Psycho]

:umno:
Dude, if there are two doors left, there are only two possible outcomes. Either it is behind the one you're gonna open, or it's behind the other one. It's the same as if I flip a coin three times and it lands on heads each time. There isn't some weird probability of it landing on tails the next time.

[GSRteg®]

i'd stick with my first choice.

x2

[man]

Dude, if there are two doors left, there are only two possible outcomes. Either it is behind the one you're gonna open, or it's behind the other one. It's the same as if I flip a coin three times and it lands on heads each time. There isn't some weird probability of it landing on tails the next time.

The thing about it is, if you look at the overall statistics, yes there is.

[Psycho]

The thing about it is, if you look at the overall statistics, yes there is.
If there are only two choices, there is no possible way to split the probability in to anything other than 50:50. That stupid wikipedia page just uses a bunch of numbers and big words to confuse people. The ratio they use is all wrong. Yes there are still 2/3 doors left unopened, but only 1 of the 2 doors contains the prize.

Any retard with a computer can make a wikipedia page, and educate stupid people with faulty knowledge.

[Psycho]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psycho%27s_balls

[Magnus213]

Realize that the entire problem considers situations, not choices. Out of the three possible situations possible, you win 2 of 3 times by switching. I still can't believe that people are denying the answer. If Wikipedia scares you, here.

http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.monty.hall.html
http://www.letsmakeadeal.com/problem.htm (features Marilyn vos Savant, who I already referred to)
http://web.mit.edu/rsi/First-Week/minisample/minisample.pdf

It goes on and on.

[Psycho]

Oh, my god. Those three sources are even worse than the wikipedia page. You guys can convince yourselves into thinking what ever you want. But if you really do believe this crap, then I have some winning lottery numbers I'm willing to sell you.

[yudalicious]

lol... can't believe this **** is still debatable... first of all, stuff on wikipedia isn't always right, but there ARE links to credible references on the bottom of the page so you can check.

secondly, it doesn't take a ****ing genius like savant to figure out why you should switch. the original wording of this famous riddle was ambiguous, but the OP's wording made it clear that the host knows where the money is and opens a door with NO money, thus the answer is SWITCH.

simple explanation: your original choice is wrong 2 out of 3 times, AND the host will ALWAYS open another wrong door, meaning 2 out of 3 times both you and the host pick the WRONG door, meaning 2 out of 3 times the LAST door left has the money, meaning you should switch.

It's fallacious to ignore the host's pick and think that since there's only 2 doors left, your chances are 50/50, since which door the host chooses is DEPENDENT on your first choice. Ie, if you choose A(empty), the host will HAVE to open B (empty), since C contains the money and he can't open that door. therefore you can't simply ignore the host's choice of door and just consider the 2 doors left. If this doesn't change your mind, the easiest thing to do is to draw out ALL the possibilities, and if that still doesn't change your mind... well, let's hope you are one good lookn person.

[umairejaz]

I get it :D. Like ^ said, its better to switch just because the second situation is directly dependent on the first situation. The host will ALWAYS pick the wrong door. If you pick the wrong door, the host has to pick the remaining last wrong door and has no choice. Im going to present this in my statistics class :goodjob:

[Magnus213]

Oh, my god. Those three sources are even worse than the wikipedia page. You guys can convince yourselves into thinking what ever you want. But if you really do believe this crap, then I have some winning lottery numbers I'm willing to sell you.
You've got to be kidding me. I give up, then. If you don't believe it when it comes from colleges (Drexel and MIT), then I don't know what it takes. Joke's on you for refusing to accept the correct solution.

It's a paradox. It's supposed to be counter-intuitive.

[Vteckidd]

Dude, if there are two doors left, there are only two possible outcomes. Either it is behind the one you're gonna open, or it's behind the other one. It's the same as if I flip a coin three times and it lands on heads each time. There isn't some weird probability of it landing on tails the next time.
My father used this arguement as well.

If you flip a coin 10 times an it lands on HEADS 10 times in a row, on the 11th flip is it more likely to lan on heads or tails?

the answer is its still 50%, just cause HEADS came up 10 times in a row doesnt mean that now Tails has a much higher chance.

I dunno, my mind is too asleep right now to argue lol

[AnthonyF]

^^ its almost 1. lolol. ive been up since 7. you young kids these days.

[Vteckidd]

Long weeks i sleep in on Sundays lol.

I only get 4-5 hours a night during the week

[AnthonyF]

Long weeks i sleep in on Sundays lol.

I only get 4-5 hours a night during the week

i'm about the same. i get home for work i just want to relax. i just have a hard time sleeping late. seems as if i am missing everything...:offtopic: back on topic...

[AnthonyF]

LOLOLOL....ive got to be careful which button i push. lol. i pushed edit ur post. haha... my bad.

[man]

My father used this arguement as well.

If you flip a coin 10 times an it lands on HEADS 10 times in a row, on the 11th flip is it more likely to lan on heads or tails?

the answer is its still 50%, just cause HEADS came up 10 times in a row doesnt mean that now Tails has a much higher chance.

Yes, when you are dealing with instantaneous probability. So, if before you flip the coin you guess, it is 50/50. On the other hand, the probability of getting heads 10 times in a row is (1/2)^10. It just depends on the perspective, instantaneous vs. total.

[AnthonyF]

^^ my head hurts now

[xlilvi3tx]

are u serious......? i basically laid out all the choices what happens and yall still cant see how its 2/3 of winning if you switch? well im happy i got that sh!t lol gl to who still cant get it lol

[Psycho]

lol... can't believe this **** is still debatable... first of all, stuff on wikipedia isn't always right, but there ARE links to credible references on the bottom of the page so you can check.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psycho%27s_balls
I don't need sources for this sh*t, it's already common knowledge. Ahh yeah.

[Psycho]

OH GOD NO! They took it down :(

[man]

OH GOD NO! They took it down :(

Exactly. Do you accept the truth now? :tongue1:

[Psycho]

09:19, 2 December 2007 Bongwarrior (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Bongwarrior) (Talk (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:Bongwarrior) | contribs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Bongwarrior)) deleted "Psycho's balls (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psycho%27s_balls&action=edit)" ‎ (: Speedy deleted per (CSD g3 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WP:CSD#g3)), was pure vandalism. using TW (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WP:TWINKLE))

:lmfao:I got IP banned

[man]

09:19, 2 December 2007 Bongwarrior (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Bongwarrior) (Talk (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:Bongwarrior) | contribs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Bongwarrior)) deleted "Psycho's balls (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psycho%27s_balls&action=edit)" ‎ (: Speedy deleted per (CSD g3 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WP:CSD#g3)), was pure vandalism. using TW (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WP:TWINKLE))

:lmfao:I got IP banned

lol, thats hilarious

[Deke]

Alright, we discussed this problem in Probability my sophomore year. I'm sure many people have kind of covered this, but here's my take. There are only three general situations for the switch.

1. You originally pick a goat. The host shows the other goat. You switch and get the money.

2. You pick the other goat. The host shows you the first goat. You switch and get the money.

3. You pick the money. The host shows you a goat. You switch and get the other goat.

2 out of 3 times you win.

Now let's look at it if you don't switch.

1. You initially pick a goat. The host shows you the other goat. You don't switch. You get the goat.

2. You pick the other goat. The host shows you the first goat. You don't switch. You get the goat.

3. You pick the money. The host shows you a goat. You don't switch. You get the money.

2 out of 3 times you will get the goat without switching.


Common sense wise, you're right it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. But looking at it mathematically, you always should switch. I'm an industrial engineering major at Tech, probability and statistics is what I do. A lot of times probability goes against common sense, it just happens.